NASDAQ: KRYS · Biotechnology
Krystal Biotech (KRYS) fair value and price range
As of 30 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Krystal Biotech (KRYS) at $387.29 a share. The stock last closed at $322.28, which puts the model's fair value 20.2% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Krystal Biotech, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 30 Sep 2026
Krystal Biotech, Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on developing redosable gene therapies to address severe orphan diseases across the United States.
On 30 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $387.29 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $359.87, so the fair value moved +7.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $324.93 to $472.23, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The overall quality score for Krystal Biotech, Inc. is 73 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Bio-Techne Corporation, TG Therapeutics, Inc., Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc., and Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. Around its last 8 earnings reports, the stock moved -4.8% on 3 Aug 2026, +7.0% on 4 May 2026, and +2.5% on 17 Feb 2026.
Written from the figures on this page for the 30 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give KRYS?
The calibrated range for KRYS over 63 trading days is $324.93 to $472.23. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 15 to 30% above price, the calibrated range has held the price 50% of the time over 63 trading days, and 47% ended below it; the typical move was +4.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $248.11 to $584.24. In 61% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does KRYS score on business quality?
Krystal Biotech's overall quality score is 73 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 88 | 21.0%ROIC | -30.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 63 | 1.07xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 77 | 33.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 87.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 83 | 0.2%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 100 | -1.92xNet debt / EBITDA | |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 86.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 22.5 pts |
How does KRYS compare with similar companies?
The companies in biotechnology closest to Krystal Biotech in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARWR Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $64.19 | $62.14 | -3.2% | Data under review |
| TECH Bio-Techne Corporation | $72.40 | $68.12 | -5.9% | Fairly valued |
| PTGX Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. | $140.06 | $142.28 | +1.6% | Data under review |
| BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. | $57.18 | $60.60 | +6.0% | Low evidence grade |
| TGTX TG Therapeutics, Inc. | $54.29 | $67.07 | +23.5% | Undervalued |
| CYTK Cytokinetics, Incorporated | $65.60 | $55.66 | -15.2% | Low evidence grade |
| HALO Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. | $109.86 | $107.60 | -2.1% | Fairly valued |
| NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. | $143.18 | $138.92 | -3.0% | Fairly valued |
When does KRYS report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Krystal Biotech's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How KRYS moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 3 Aug 2026 | -4.8% |
| 4 May 2026 | +7.0% |
| 17 Feb 2026 | +2.5% |
| 3 Nov 2025 | +2.9% |
| 4 Aug 2025 | -12.5% |
| 6 May 2025 | -21.4% |
| 19 Feb 2025 | +16.5% |
| 4 Nov 2024 | -1.1% |
Krystal Biotech at a glance
Krystal Biotech, Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on developing redosable gene therapies to address severe orphan diseases across the United States.
- Market value
- $10.2B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $623M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +30.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 9
- Beta to the US market
- 0.57
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Krystal Biotech on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the revenue analysts expect next year (forward EV/Sales), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for KRYS was $359.87. As of 30 Sep 2026 it is $387.29, a change of +7.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Krystal Biotech's valuation
Is Krystal Biotech stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts KRYS's fair value at $387.29 a share against a last close of $322.28, as of 30 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is KRYS's fair value?
$387.29 a share as of 30 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $248.11 to $584.24.
What price range does the model give KRYS?
$324.93 to $472.23 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Krystal Biotech report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has KRYS moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was -21.4% around the report of 6 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for KRYS is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.