NASDAQ: BMRN · Biotechnology
BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN) at $70.40 a share. The stock last closed at $56.12, which puts the model's fair value 25.4% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $64.09 to $70.40 (+9.8%). The peer group changed: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $56.12 is 25.4% below it: Undervalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 22 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 12% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give BMRN?
The calibrated range for BMRN over 63 trading days is $49.70 to $65.16. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that BMRN's own options imply (41% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $51.04 to $92.25. In 69% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. specializes in creating and bringing to market treatments for individuals suffering from severe and often fatal rare disorders and other critical medical conditions.
The model's fair value for BioMarin is $70.40 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations, from the run on 31 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $64.09, so the fair value moved +9.8%. In the model's own words, the reason was that the peer group changed, which was most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $50.19 to $63.20. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
BioMarin scores 56 out of 100 on the model's overall quality score, a composite of six quality factors measured against comparable companies. Earnings quality is highest at 95, with FCF / net income of 10.04x. Balance sheet is lowest at 12, with net debt / EBITDA of 8.63x. Profitability scores 35, with ROIC of 1.8% against a peer median of 0.1%. The model compares BioMarin with Bio-Techne Corporation (TECH), Krystal Biotech, Inc. (KRYS) and Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does BMRN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
BioMarin Pharmaceutical's next earnings report is scheduled for 22 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 5.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. BMRN's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 11.8% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across BMRN's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.6%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in BMRN
How does BMRN score on business quality?
BioMarin Pharmaceutical's overall quality score is 56 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 35 | 1.8%ROIC | 0.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 95 | 10.04xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 64 | 12.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 50.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 73 | 0.3%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 12 | 8.63xNet debt / EBITDA | |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 57 | 5.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 10.4 pts |
How does BMRN compare with similar companies?
The companies in biotechnology closest to BioMarin Pharmaceutical in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TECH Bio-Techne Corporation | $72.66 | $64.91 | -10.7% | Fairly valued |
| KRYS Krystal Biotech, Inc. | $300.25 | $384.08 | +27.9% | Undervalued |
| PTGX Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. | $135.26 | $167.40 | +23.8% | Low evidence grade |
| TGTX TG Therapeutics, Inc. | $57.98 | $70.94 | +22.4% | Low evidence grade |
| JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc | $227.32 | $256.45 | +12.8% | Low evidence grade |
| CYTK Cytokinetics, Incorporated | $55.55 | $52.67 | -5.2% | Low evidence grade |
| NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. | $159.76 | $162.09 | +1.5% | Fairly valued |
| HALO Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. | $122.96 | $134.12 | +9.1% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for BMRN, the peer-implied price, is $133.79 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
BioMarin Pharmaceutical at a glance
BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. specializes in creating and bringing to market treatments for individuals suffering from severe and often fatal rare disorders and other critical medical conditions.
- Market value
- $11.3B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +21.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 14
- Beta to the US market
- 0.25
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. BMRN was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices BioMarin Pharmaceutical on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the revenue analysts expect next year (forward EV/Sales), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for BMRN was $64.09. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $70.40, a change of +9.8%. The peer group changed: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about BioMarin Pharmaceutical's valuation
Is BioMarin Pharmaceutical stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, BMRN reads as Undervalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $70.40 a share against a last close of $56.12, a gap of +25.4%.
What is BMRN's fair value?
$70.40 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $51.04 to $92.25.
What price range does the model give BMRN?
$49.70 to $65.16 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does BioMarin Pharmaceutical report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 22 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has BMRN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +6.5% around the report of 4 Aug 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for BMRN is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on BMRN
The model holds no idea open on BMRN today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on BMRN with their outcomes. A free account is enough.