NASDAQ: TGTX · Biotechnology
TG Therapeutics (TGTX) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values TG Therapeutics (TGTX) at $67.07 a share. The stock last closed at $54.29, which puts the model's fair value 23.5% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. TG Therapeutics, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
TG Therapeutics, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company that has advanced to the commercial stage. Based in New York City and established in 1993, its core mission revolves around the acquisition, advancement, and marketing of novel therapeutic solutions.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $67.07 a share, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +1.0% since the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $66.42. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $56.27 to $81.78, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, holding the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
The company's overall quality score is 52 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability score is 69, with ROIC at 15.6% against a peer median of -2.4%. Its growth quality score is 89, with trailing revenue growth of 87.3% against a peer median of 8.6%. Faircurve's model compares it with Bio-Techne Corporation and Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. The stock's median move around its last 8 earnings reports was 5.1%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give TGTX?
The calibrated range for TGTX over 63 trading days is $56.27 to $81.78. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 15 to 30% above price, the calibrated range has held the price 50% of the time over 63 trading days, and 47% ended below it; the typical move was +4.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $41.39 to $103.41. In 61% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does TGTX score on business quality?
TG Therapeutics's overall quality score is 52 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 69 | 15.6%ROIC | -2.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 0 | -0.00xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 89 | 87.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 8.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 96 | 3.2%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 38 | 2.03xNet debt / EBITDA | |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 2557.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 86.3 pts |
How does TGTX compare with similar companies?
The companies in biotechnology closest to TG Therapeutics in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PTGX Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. | $140.06 | $142.28 | +1.6% | Data under review |
| ARWR Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $64.19 | $62.14 | -3.2% | Data under review |
| CYTK Cytokinetics, Incorporated | $65.60 | $55.66 | -15.2% | Low evidence grade |
| KRYS Krystal Biotech, Inc. | $322.28 | $387.29 | +20.2% | Low evidence grade |
| TECH Bio-Techne Corporation | $72.40 | $68.12 | -5.9% | Fairly valued |
| BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. | $57.18 | $60.60 | +6.0% | Low evidence grade |
| LGND Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated | $302.96 | $302.87 | 0.0% | Low evidence grade |
| HALO Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. | $109.86 | $107.60 | -2.1% | Fairly valued |
When does TGTX report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
TG Therapeutics's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 17.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How TGTX moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 3 Aug 2026 | -6.3% |
| 6 May 2026 | +19.2% |
| 26 Feb 2026 | +1.4% |
| 3 Nov 2025 | -2.8% |
| 4 Aug 2025 | -18.9% |
| 5 May 2025 | +2.0% |
| 3 Mar 2025 | +18.4% |
| 4 Nov 2024 | -3.9% |
TG Therapeutics at a glance
Based in New York City and established in 1993, TG Therapeutics, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company that has advanced to the commercial stage. Its core mission revolves around the acquisition, advancement, and marketing of novel therapeutic solutions.
- Market value
- $8.8B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +55.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 0.38
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices TG Therapeutics on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the revenue analysts expect next year (forward EV/Sales), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for TGTX was $66.42. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $67.07, a change of +1.0%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about TG Therapeutics's valuation
Is TG Therapeutics stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, TGTX reads as Undervalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $67.07 a share against a last close of $54.29, a gap of +23.5%.
What is TGTX's fair value?
$67.07 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $41.39 to $103.41.
What price range does the model give TGTX?
$56.27 to $81.78 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does TG Therapeutics report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has TGTX moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was +19.2% around the report of 6 May 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for TGTX is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.