NYSE: MOH · Healthcare Plans
Molina Healthcare (MOH) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Molina Healthcare (MOH) at $193.17 a share. The stock last closed at $189.54, which puts the model's fair value 1.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Molina Healthcare, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Molina Healthcare, Inc. offers comprehensive managed health care services, primarily targeting economically disadvantaged families and individuals.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $193.17 a share on 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $194.41, so the fair value moved -0.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $161.16 to $234.18, built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model's evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score is 58 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Centene Corp. (CNC), Humana Inc. (HUM), Progyny, Inc. (PGNY), Cigna Corporation (CI), Elevance Health Inc. (ELV), CVS Health Corp. (CVS), and UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports ranged from -26.0% to +15.7%, with a median size of 13.6%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give MOH?
The calibrated range for MOH over 63 trading days is $161.16 to $234.18. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $158.07 to $235.82. In 53% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does MOH score on business quality?
Molina Healthcare's overall quality score is 58 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 42 | 9.4%ROIC | 10.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 67 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 42 | 11.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 11.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 100 | 5.2%Net buybacks / market value | 1.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 71 | -2.78xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.40x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 69 | 0.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.0 pts |
How does MOH compare with similar companies?
The companies in healthcare plans closest to Molina Healthcare in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNC Centene Corp. | $62.99 | $74.71 | +18.6% | Undervalued |
| HUM Humana Inc. | $388.36 | $343.08 | -11.7% | Fairly valued |
| PGNY Progyny, Inc. | $25.23 | $28.97 | +14.8% | Fairly valued |
| CI Cigna Corporation | $270.53 | $356.05 | +31.6% | Undervalued |
| ELV Elevance Health Inc. | $386.43 | $406.69 | +5.2% | Fairly valued |
| CVS CVS Health Corp. | $86.46 | $89.42 | +3.4% | Fairly valued |
| UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | $371.90 | $369.01 | -0.8% | Fairly valued |
When does MOH report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Molina Healthcare's next earnings report is scheduled for 21 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 6.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How MOH moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 13.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2026 | -11.6% |
| 22 Apr 2026 | +15.7% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | -26.0% |
| 22 Oct 2025 | -18.2% |
| 23 Jul 2025 | -12.4% |
| 23 Apr 2025 | -13.2% |
| 5 Feb 2025 | -9.6% |
| 23 Oct 2024 | +14.0% |
Molina Healthcare at a glance
Molina Healthcare, Inc. offers comprehensive managed health care services, primarily targeting economically disadvantaged families and individuals.
- Market value
- $9.9B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Healthcare Plans
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $47.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -2.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- -0.11
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Molina Healthcare on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for MOH was $194.41. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $193.17, a change of -0.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Molina Healthcare's valuation
Is Molina Healthcare stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MOH reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $193.17 a share against a last close of $189.54, a gap of +1.9%.
What is MOH's fair value?
$193.17 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $158.07 to $235.82.
What price range does the model give MOH?
$161.16 to $234.18 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Molina Healthcare report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 21 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MOH moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 13.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was -26.0% around the report of 5 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MOH is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.