NASDAQ: PGNY · Healthcare Plans
Progyny (PGNY) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Progyny (PGNY) at $29.21 a share. The stock last closed at $25.23, which puts the model's fair value 15.8% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Progyny, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Progyny, Inc. functions as a benefits management corporation, dedicated to providing specialized solutions for fertility and broader family-building initiatives to employers throughout the United States.
Faircurve’s model on 26 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $29.21 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave $31.17, so the fair value moved -6.3%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $24.51 to $35.62, built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model's evidence grade is Medium.
The company scores 87 out of 100 on overall quality against comparable companies, with high scores for Profitability at 100 and Earnings quality at 100. The model compares it with Molina Healthcare, Inc., Centene Corp., Humana Inc., Cigna Corporation, Elevance Health Inc., CVS Health Corp., and UnitedHealth Group Incorporated. The median move around the last 8 earnings reports was 13.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give PGNY?
The calibrated range for PGNY over 63 trading days is $24.51 to $35.62. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $21.23 to $39.11. In 64% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does PGNY score on business quality?
Progyny's overall quality score is 87 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 22.5%ROIC | -18.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | 2.77xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 50 | 10.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 7.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 75 | 17.5%Net buybacks / market value | 1.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 100 | -0.99xNet debt / EBITDA | |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 92 | 1.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 7.1 pts |
How does PGNY compare with similar companies?
The companies in healthcare plans closest to Progyny in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOH Molina Healthcare, Inc. | $189.54 | $194.41 | +2.6% | Fairly valued |
| CNC Centene Corp. | $62.99 | $73.22 | +16.2% | Undervalued |
| HUM Humana Inc. | $388.36 | $345.39 | -11.1% | Fairly valued |
| CI Cigna Corporation | $270.53 | $356.02 | +31.6% | Undervalued |
| ELV Elevance Health Inc. | $386.43 | $406.78 | +5.3% | Fairly valued |
| CVS CVS Health Corp. | $86.46 | $91.86 | +6.2% | Fairly valued |
| UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | $371.90 | $375.26 | +0.9% | Fairly valued |
When does PGNY report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Progyny's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How PGNY moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 13.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | -10.4% |
| 7 May 2026 | +26.8% |
| 26 Feb 2026 | -17.1% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | +18.5% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | -2.7% |
| 8 May 2025 | -7.8% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | -2.0% |
| 12 Nov 2024 | -18.5% |
Progyny at a glance
Progyny, Inc. functions as a benefits management corporation, dedicated to providing specialized solutions for fertility and broader family-building initiatives to employers throughout the United States.
- Market value
- $2.0B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Healthcare Plans
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +6.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 0.40
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Progyny on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the revenue analysts expect next year (forward EV/Sales), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for PGNY was $31.17. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $29.21, a change of -6.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Progyny's valuation
Is Progyny stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, PGNY reads as Undervalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $29.21 a share against a last close of $25.23, a gap of +15.8%.
What is PGNY's fair value?
$29.21 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $21.23 to $39.11.
What price range does the model give PGNY?
$24.51 to $35.62 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Progyny report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PGNY moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 13.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +26.8% around the report of 7 May 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PGNY is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.