NASDAQ: MSTR · Application Software
Strategy (MSTR) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 10 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Strategy (MSTR) at $138.50 a share. The stock last closed at $152.18, which puts the model's fair value 9.0% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 13 Oct 2026. Strategy Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices and the next earnings date. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 10 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $142.73 to $138.50 (-3.0%).
What the model makes of itThe price of $152.18 is 9.0% above it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 29 Oct 2026. Options prices imply a move of about 19% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 17 Oct 2026.
What price range does the model give MSTR?
The calibrated range for MSTR over 63 trading days is $125.56 to $200.42. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that MSTR's own options imply (67% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $79.66 to $228.28. In 43% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 10 Oct 2026
Strategy Inc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a bitcoin treasury company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $138.50 a share for Strategy Inc, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations, on 10 Oct 2026. This was a move of -3.0% from the previous run on 3 Oct 2026, which gave $142.73. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days was $125.56 to $200.42. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade for this valuation was Medium.
The business quality scores are not stated on this sheet. The model compares Strategy Inc with Veeva Systems Inc. (VEEV), Roper Technologies, Inc. (ROP), and Adobe Inc. (ADBE). Other comparable companies with no verdict on this date are Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK), Workday, Inc. (WDAY), Intuit Inc. (INTU), AppLovin Corporation (APP), and Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (CDNS).
Written from the figures on this page for the 10 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does MSTR report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Strategy's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 13 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 8.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 9 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. MSTR's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 19.3% over one month.
Around its last 6 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across MSTR's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.9%.
Earlier reports are left out: the options record before 30 Nov 2024 is not comparable.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in MSTR
How does MSTR compare with similar companies?
The companies in application software closest to Strategy in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADSK Autodesk, Inc. | $230.43 | $282.34 | +22.5% | Low evidence grade |
| WDAY Workday, Inc. | $186.02 | $196.72 | +5.8% | Low evidence grade |
| VEEV Veeva Systems Inc. | $301.63 | $265.27 | -12.1% | Fairly valued |
| ROP Roper Technologies, Inc. | $368.41 | $367.29 | -0.3% | Fairly valued |
| INTU Intuit Inc. | $301.45 | $396.36 | +31.5% | Low evidence grade |
| APP AppLovin Corporation | $272.28 | $318.95 | +17.1% | Low evidence grade |
| ADBE Adobe Inc. | $236.28 | $281.69 | +19.2% | Undervalued |
| CDNS Cadence Design Systems, Inc. | $334.20 | $371.78 | +11.2% | Low evidence grade |
Strategy at a glance
Strategy Inc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a bitcoin treasury company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally.
- Market value
- $51.1B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Application Software
- Beta to the US market
- 3.27
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 13 Oct 2026, 53.0% of the 1,094 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. MSTR was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Strategy on each part of the business valued on its own and added up (a sum of the parts), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 3 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for MSTR was $142.73. As of 10 Oct 2026 it is $138.50, a change of -3.0%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Strategy's valuation
Is Strategy stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MSTR reads as Fairly valued as of 10 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $138.50 a share against a last close of $152.18, a gap of -9.0%.
What is MSTR's fair value?
$138.50 a share as of 10 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $79.66 to $228.28.
What price range does the model give MSTR?
$125.56 to $200.42 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026.
When does Strategy report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MSTR moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was -10.3% around the report of 1 Aug 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MSTR is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on MSTR
The model holds no idea open on MSTR today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on MSTR with their outcomes. A free account is enough.