NYSE: FICO · Application Software
Fair Isaac (FICO) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 2 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Fair Isaac (FICO) at $815.31 a share. The stock last closed at $661.25, which puts the model's fair value 23.3% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Fair Isaac Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 2 Oct 2026
Fair Isaac Corporation, also known as FICO, delivers advanced analytics, software solutions, and data management services designed to help businesses optimize, automate, and interconnect their crucial decision-making processes.
Faircurve's model on 2 Oct 2026 found a fair value of $815.31 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $996.18, and the fair value moved -18.2%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $684.03 to $994.12, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade for this valuation is Medium.
The overall quality score for the business is 66 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares Fair Isaac Corporation with Dynatrace, Inc. (DT), PTC Inc. (PTC), Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL), DocuSign, Inc. (DOCU), Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE), Manhattan Associates, Inc. (MANH), and Roper Technologies, Inc. (ROP). The median move around the last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 3.6%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 2 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give FICO?
The calibrated range for FICO over 63 trading days is $684.03 to $994.12. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 15 to 30% above price, the calibrated range has held the price 50% of the time over 63 trading days, and 47% ended below it; the typical move was +4.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $572.40 to $1,111.71. In 69% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does FICO score on business quality?
Fair Isaac's overall quality score is 66 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 91 | 75.5%ROIC | 15.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 46 | 1.22xFCF / net income | 2.02x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 69 | 15.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 9.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 100 | 25.1%Net buybacks / market value | 2.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 16 | 4.22xNet debt / EBITDA | -0.62x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 43 | 1.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.6 pts |
How does FICO compare with similar companies?
The companies in application software closest to Fair Isaac in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DT Dynatrace, Inc. | $59.32 | $51.30 | -13.5% | Fairly valued |
| PTC PTC Inc. | $144.03 | $171.57 | +19.1% | Undervalued |
| TYL Tyler Technologies, Inc. | $322.81 | $293.47 | -9.1% | Fairly valued |
| DOCU DocuSign, Inc. | $69.01 | $93.60 | +35.6% | Undervalued |
| GWRE Guidewire Software, Inc. | $152.15 | $127.54 | -16.2% | Overvalued |
| MANH Manhattan Associates, Inc. | $204.15 | $185.84 | -9.0% | Fairly valued |
| PAYC Paycom Software, Inc. | $220.99 | $235.58 | +6.6% | Low evidence grade |
| ROP Roper Technologies, Inc. | $354.32 | $355.03 | +0.2% | Fairly valued |
When does FICO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Fair Isaac's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 9.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
On 1 Oct 2026 FICO moved 11.7% in one session, against the 3.1% a day that options had priced: 3.8 times the implied size.
How FICO moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | -14.7% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | +2.9% |
| 28 Jan 2026 | -2.8% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | +4.3% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | -4.5% |
| 29 Apr 2025 | +2.4% |
| 4 Feb 2025 | +1.1% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +8.3% |
Fair Isaac at a glance
Fair Isaac Corporation, also known as FICO, delivers advanced analytics, software solutions, and data management services designed to help businesses optimize, automate, and interconnect their crucial decision-making processes.
- Market value
- $18.6B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Application Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +27.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 13
- Beta to the US market
- 0.22
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Fair Isaac on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for FICO was $996.18. As of 2 Oct 2026 it is $815.31, a change of -18.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Fair Isaac's valuation
Is Fair Isaac stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, FICO reads as Undervalued as of 2 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $815.31 a share against a last close of $661.25, a gap of +23.3%.
What is FICO's fair value?
$815.31 a share as of 2 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $572.40 to $1,111.71.
What price range does the model give FICO?
$684.03 to $994.12 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Fair Isaac report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has FICO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was -14.7% around the report of 29 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for FICO is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.