NYSE: OGN · General Drug Manufacturers
Organon (OGN) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Organon (OGN) at $13.90 a share. The stock last closed at $13.79, which puts the model's fair value 0.8% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Organon & Co.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $13.90, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $13.79 is 0.8% below it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextReports on 9 Nov 2026. Options expiring after the report price a move of about 27% either way. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give OGN?
The calibrated range for OGN over 63 trading days is $13.05 to $14.75. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that OGN's own options imply (19% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $6.13 to $23.31. In 50% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Organon & Co. is a global pharmaceutical enterprise. It is dedicated to developing and delivering a wide array of prescription therapies.
Faircurve's model put the fair value of Organon & Co. at $13.90 a share on 31 Oct 2026. This is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $13.81, so the fair value moved +0.7%. The sheet gives no reason for this move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $13.12 to $14.80. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, and it is calibrated weekly against realised prices, using 6,661 past valuations that were refreshed on the run date. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The sheet has no quality score for Organon & Co., so this note cannot report an overall score or the factors behind one. The model compares the company with eight comparable companies, each with a fair value of its own on the site: Biogen Inc. (BIIB), Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY), Pfizer Inc. (PFE), Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD), Amgen Inc. (AMGN), Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK), AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). Faircurve first valued Organon & Co. on 11 Jul 2026.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
The Global Pulse
Faircurve's note after each US session, in your inbox. No account needed.
When does OGN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Organon's next earnings report is scheduled for 9 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 26.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 15 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. OGN's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 5.3% over one month.
Around its last 3 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across OGN's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.3%.
Earlier reports are left out: the options record before 25 Apr 2026 is not comparable.
How does OGN compare with similar companies?
The companies in general drug manufacturers closest to Organon in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BIIB Biogen Inc. | $243.93 | $258.65 | +6.0% | Fairly valued |
| BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | $63.13 | $70.65 | +11.9% | Fairly valued |
| PFE Pfizer Inc. | $29.88 | $34.04 | +13.9% | Fairly valued |
| GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. | $167.57 | $157.69 | -5.9% | Fairly valued |
| AMGN Amgen Inc. | $460.28 | $491.10 | +6.7% | Fairly valued |
| MRK Merck & Co., Inc. | $146.94 | $125.88 | -14.3% | Fairly valued |
| ABBV AbbVie Inc. | $288.24 | $297.68 | +3.3% | Fairly valued |
| JNJ Johnson & Johnson | $272.32 | $224.64 | -17.5% | Overvalued |
All general drug manufacturer stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Organon at a glance
Organon & Co., a global pharmaceutical enterprise, is dedicated to developing and delivering a wide array of prescription therapies.
- Market value
- $3.6B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- General Drug Manufacturers
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $6.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -1.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 0.78
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Organon on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for OGN was $13.81. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $13.90, a change of +0.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Organon's valuation
Is Organon stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts OGN's fair value at $13.90 a share against a last close of $13.79, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is OGN's fair value?
$13.90 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $6.13 to $23.31.
What price range does the model give OGN?
$13.05 to $14.75 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Organon report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 9 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has OGN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was +10.9% around the report of 10 Nov 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for OGN is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on OGN
The model holds no idea open on OGN today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on OGN with their outcomes. A free account is enough.