NYSE: OGN ยท General Drug Manufacturers
Organon (OGN) fair value and price range
As of 21 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Organon (OGN) at $8.96 a share. The stock last closed at $13.68, which puts the model's fair value 34.5% below the price. The model has low confidence in this valuation, so no verdict is shown. Low confidence means the inputs or the peer comparison behind the number are thin, and the fair value is a rough guide.
Revalued . Price is the close of 18 Sep 2026. Organon & Co.
What price range does the model give OGN?
The calibrated range for OGN over 63 trading days is $7.56 to $10.98. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,913 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 39% of the time over 63 trading days, and 58% ended above it; the typical move was +0.5%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $2.19 to $16.34. In 30% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does OGN score on business quality?
Organon's overall quality score is 44 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 35 | 9.1%ROIC | 14.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 84 | 2.38xFCF / net income | 1.53x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 27 | -2.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 12.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 52 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 6 | 5.68xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.08x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 56 | 2.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.1 pts |
How does OGN compare with similar companies?
The companies in general drug manufacturers closest to Organon in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BIIB Biogen Inc. | $215.50 | $224.52 | +4.2% | Fairly valued |
| BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | $63.06 | $71.49 | +13.4% | Fairly valued |
| PFE Pfizer Inc. | $27.66 | $30.74 | +11.1% | Fairly valued |
| GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. | $150.11 | $140.76 | -6.2% | Fairly valued |
| AMGN Amgen Inc. | $385.65 | $431.49 | +11.9% | Fairly valued |
| MRK Merck & Co., Inc. | $146.87 | $124.20 | -15.4% | Overvalued |
| ABBV AbbVie Inc. | $263.96 | $279.32 | +5.8% | Fairly valued |
| JNJ Johnson & Johnson | $269.99 | $218.63 | -19.0% | Overvalued |
All general drug manufacturer stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does OGN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Organon's next earnings report is scheduled for 9 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How OGN moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | +0.1% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | -0.4% |
| 12 Feb 2026 | -3.9% |
| 10 Nov 2025 | +10.9% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | -9.8% |
| 1 May 2025 | -22.9% |
| 13 Feb 2025 | +3.9% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | +0.8% |
Organon at a glance
Organon & Co., a global pharmaceutical enterprise, is dedicated to developing and delivering a wide array of prescription therapies.
- Market value
- $3.6B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- General Drug Manufacturers
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $6.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -1.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- 0.74
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Organon on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the revenue analysts expect next year (forward EV/Sales), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 12 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for OGN was $13.71. As of 21 Sep 2026 it is $8.96, a change of -34.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Organon's valuation
Is Organon stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts OGN's fair value at $8.96 a share against a last close of $13.68, as of 21 Sep 2026. The model has low confidence in this valuation, so no verdict is shown. Low confidence means the inputs or the peer comparison behind the number are thin, and the fair value is a rough guide.
What is OGN's fair value?
$8.96 a share as of 21 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $2.19 to $16.34.
What price range does the model give OGN?
$7.56 to $10.98 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,913 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026.
When does Organon report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 9 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has OGN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was -22.9% around the report of 1 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
Model confidence for OGN is low. Confidence reflects how complete the inputs are and how well comparable companies explain the valuation. It is not a probability that the price reaches the fair value.