NASDAQ: OLED · Hardware, Equipment & Parts
Universal Display (OLED) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 5 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values Universal Display (OLED) at $97.57 a share. The stock last closed at $87.13, which puts the model's fair value 12.0% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Universal Display Corporation.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 5 Nov 2026 moved the fair value from $91.08 to $97.57 (+7.1%).
What the model makes of itThe price of $87.13 is 12.0% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 18 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 17% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give OLED?
The calibrated range for OLED over 63 trading days is $73.06 to $108.18. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that OLED's own options imply (59% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $78.44 to $119.59. In 63% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 5 Nov 2026
Universal Display Corporation is dedicated to the investigation, advancement, and market deployment of organic light-emitting diode (OLED) innovations and their constituent materials, primarily for use in display and solid-state illumination applications.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $97.57 a share on 5 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 31 Oct 2026, gave $91.08; the fair value moved +7.1%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $73.06 to $108.18. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, and calibrated weekly against realised prices (6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium. It covers input completeness, the number and agreement of comparable companies, and the spread of outcomes, but not whether the fair value is right.
The model scores Universal Display Corporation 61 out of 100 overall, a composite of six quality factors scored against comparable companies. Stability stands out at 96, with EBITDA margin downside volatility of 1.5 pts over five years against a peer median of 6.4 pts. Profitability scores 94, with ROIC of 11.3% against a peer median of 1.8%. The comparable companies are OSI Systems, Vontier, Knowles, Plexus, Benchmark Electronics, Sensata Technologies, Rogers and Itron.
Written from the figures on this page for the 5 Nov 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does OLED report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Universal Display's next earnings report is scheduled for 18 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 11.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. OLED's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 17.1% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across OLED's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.4%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in OLED
How does OLED score on business quality?
Universal Display's overall quality score is 61 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 94 | 11.3%ROIC | 1.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 43 | 0.79xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 14 | 0.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 13.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 55 | 4.8%Net buybacks / market value | 0.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 66 | -0.30xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.10x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 96 | 1.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 6.4 pts |
How does OLED compare with similar companies?
The companies in hardware, equipment & parts closest to Universal Display in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITRI Itron, Inc. | $99.46 | $96.87 | -2.6% | Low evidence grade |
| OSIS OSI Systems, Inc. | $191.61 | $220.97 | +15.3% | Undervalued |
| VNT Vontier Corporation | $39.90 | $47.37 | +18.7% | Undervalued |
| KN Knowles Corporation | $30.33 | $32.88 | +8.4% | Fairly valued |
| PLXS Plexus Corp. | $187.73 | $194.91 | +3.8% | Fairly valued |
| BHE Benchmark Electronics, Inc. | $59.34 | $77.57 | +30.7% | Undervalued |
| ST Sensata Technologies Holding plc | $38.52 | $46.16 | +19.8% | Undervalued |
| ROG Rogers Corporation | $115.74 | $130.51 | +12.8% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for OLED, the peer-implied price, is $123.11 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All hardware, equipment & parts stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Universal Display at a glance
Universal Display Corporation is dedicated to the investigation, advancement, and market deployment of organic light-emitting diode (OLED) innovations and their constituent materials, primarily for use in display and solid-state illumination applications.
- Market value
- $3.8B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Hardware, Equipment & Parts
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $664M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -3.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 1.36
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. OLED was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Universal Display on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 31 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for OLED was $91.08. As of 5 Nov 2026 it is $97.57, a change of +7.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Universal Display's valuation
Is Universal Display stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, OLED reads as Fairly valued as of 5 Nov 2026. The model's fair value is $97.57 a share against a last close of $87.13, a gap of +12.0%.
What is OLED's fair value?
$97.57 a share as of 5 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $78.44 to $119.59.
What price range does the model give OLED?
$73.06 to $108.18 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Universal Display report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 18 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has OLED moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was -15.7% around the report of 30 Oct 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for OLED is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on OLED
The model holds no idea open on OLED today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on OLED with their outcomes. A free account is enough.