NYSE: ST · Hardware, Equipment & Parts
Sensata Technologies (ST) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 2 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values Sensata Technologies (ST) at $46.16 a share. The stock last closed at $38.52, which puts the model's fair value 19.8% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Sensata Technologies Holding plc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 2 Nov 2026 moved the fair value from $43.47 to $46.16 (+6.2%).
What the model makes of itThe price of $38.52 is 19.8% below it: Undervalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 18 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 14% either way over the next month. On the model's Earnings Momentum list since 5 Nov 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give ST?
The calibrated range for ST over 63 trading days is $33.21 to $46.21. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that ST's own options imply (50% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $31.40 to $65.21. In 62% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 2 Nov 2026
Sensata Technologies Holding plc (ST) is a global enterprise. It designs, produces and distributes sensing devices, integrated sensor solutions, control systems and associated technologies.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $46.16 a share on 2 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $43.47, so the fair value moved +6.2%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $36.92 to $46.94. It is built around the price from the stock's own options-implied volatility and calibrated weekly against realised prices. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium. The grade reflects input completeness, the number and agreement of comparable companies, and the width of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Faircurve's model scores the business 43 out of 100 on quality against comparable companies. Earnings quality is 100, with free cash flow to net income of 1.75x against a peer median of 0.96x. Capital discipline is 17, with net buybacks at 0.0% of market value against a peer median of 2.0%. The model compares it with ESCO Technologies Inc. (ESE), Plexus Corp. (PLXS), Vontier Corporation (VNT), Ralliant Corp (RAL), TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI), Vicor Corporation (VICR) and Sanmina Corporation (SANM).
Written from the figures on this page for the 2 Nov 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does ST report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Sensata Technologies's next earnings report is scheduled for 18 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 13.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 42 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. ST's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 14.4% over one month.
On 5 Nov 2026 ST moved 6.3% in one session, against the 2.3% a day that options had priced: 2.8 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across ST's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.7%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in ST
How does ST score on business quality?
Sensata Technologies's overall quality score is 43 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 22 | 9.4%ROIC | 13.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | 1.75xFCF / net income | 0.96x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 38 | -5.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 6.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 17 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 2.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 43 | 2.05xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.33x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 33 | 2.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.8 pts |
How does ST compare with similar companies?
The companies in hardware, equipment & parts closest to Sensata Technologies in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESE ESCO Technologies Inc. | $225.79 | $248.14 | +9.9% | Fairly valued |
| PLXS Plexus Corp. | $187.73 | $194.91 | +3.8% | Fairly valued |
| VNT Vontier Corporation | $39.90 | $47.37 | +18.7% | Undervalued |
| RAL Ralliant Corp | $62.83 | $66.80 | +6.3% | Fairly valued |
| ITRI Itron, Inc. | $99.46 | $96.87 | -2.6% | Low evidence grade |
| TTMI TTM Technologies, Inc. | $62.22 | $87.78 | +41.1% | Undervalued |
| VICR Vicor Corporation | $135.10 | $172.72 | +27.8% | Undervalued |
| SANM Sanmina Corporation | $130.23 | $198.30 | +52.3% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for ST, the peer-implied price, is $64.72 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All hardware, equipment & parts stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Sensata Technologies at a glance
Sensata Technologies Holding plc is a global enterprise specializing in the design, production, and distribution of sensing devices, integrated sensor solutions, control systems, and associated technologies.
- Market value
- $5.9B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Hardware, Equipment & Parts
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +4.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 1.85
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. ST was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Sensata Technologies on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for ST was $43.47. As of 2 Nov 2026 it is $46.16, a change of +6.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Sensata Technologies's valuation
Is Sensata Technologies stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ST reads as Undervalued as of 2 Nov 2026. The model's fair value is $46.16 a share against a last close of $38.52, a gap of +19.8%.
What is ST's fair value?
$46.16 a share as of 2 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $31.40 to $65.21.
What price range does the model give ST?
$33.21 to $46.21 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Sensata Technologies report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 18 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ST moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +8.5% around the report of 11 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ST is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on ST
The model has an idea open on ST under Earnings Momentum since 5 Nov 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on ST with their outcomes. A free account is enough.