NASDAQ: ON · Semiconductors
ON Semiconductor (ON) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values ON Semiconductor (ON) at $119.64 a share. The stock last closed at $84.89, which puts the model's fair value 40.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. ON Semiconductor Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
ON Semiconductor Corporation operates as a global provider of sophisticated power and sensing solutions. The company is in the Technology, Semiconductors sector.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $119.64 a share on 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +9.9% since the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $108.89. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $72.44 to $110.38, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
The company's overall quality score against comparable companies is 65 out of 100. The model compares it with Qnity Electronics, Inc. (Q), Entegris, Inc. (ENTG), Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP), MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI), SiTime Corporation (SITM), Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (LSCC), Semtech Corporation (SMTC), and NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI). The median size of moves around the last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 4.2%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ON?
The calibrated range for ON over 63 trading days is $72.44 to $110.38. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that ON's own options imply (60% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $84.21 to $167.35. In 80% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ON score on business quality?
ON Semiconductor's overall quality score is 65 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 70 | 7.8%ROIC | 6.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 73 | 2.81xFCF / net income | 1.14x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 41 | -15.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 15.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 95 | 4.4%Net buybacks / market value | 0.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 53 | 0.76xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.21x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 64 | 7.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 8.5 pts |
How does ON compare with similar companies?
The companies in semiconductors closest to ON Semiconductor in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q Qnity Electronics, Inc. | $131.48 | $160.34 | +22.0% | Undervalued |
| ENTG Entegris, Inc. | $166.47 | $176.62 | +6.1% | Fairly valued |
| MCHP Microchip Technology Incorporated | $81.32 | $103.80 | +27.6% | Undervalued |
| MTSI MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. | $321.60 | $307.52 | -4.4% | Fairly valued |
| SITM SiTime Corporation | $709.44 | $632.12 | -10.9% | Fairly valued |
| LSCC Lattice Semiconductor Corporation | $134.00 | $108.38 | -19.1% | Overvalued |
| SMTC Semtech Corporation | $194.88 | $183.94 | -5.6% | Fairly valued |
| NXPI NXP Semiconductors N.V. | $243.66 | $250.90 | +3.0% | Fairly valued |
When does ON report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
ON Semiconductor's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 10.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 20 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. ON's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 17.3% over one month.
How ON moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 3 Aug 2026 | -1.0% |
| 4 May 2026 | -0.3% |
| 9 Feb 2026 | +3.3% |
| 3 Nov 2025 | -3.6% |
| 4 Aug 2025 | -16.9% |
| 5 May 2025 | -8.1% |
| 10 Feb 2025 | -6.5% |
| 28 Oct 2024 | +4.8% |
ON Semiconductor at a glance
ON Semiconductor Corporation operates as a global provider of sophisticated power and sensing solutions.
- Market value
- $33.0B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $7.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +9.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 20
- Beta to the US market
- 2.70
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices ON Semiconductor on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ON was $108.89. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $119.64, a change of +9.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about ON Semiconductor's valuation
Is ON Semiconductor stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ON reads as Undervalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $119.64 a share against a last close of $84.89, a gap of +40.9%.
What is ON's fair value?
$119.64 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $84.21 to $167.35.
What price range does the model give ON?
$72.44 to $110.38 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does ON Semiconductor report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ON moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was -16.9% around the report of 4 Aug 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ON is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.