NASDAQ: TER · Semiconductors
Teradyne (TER) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 30 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Teradyne (TER) at $402.25 a share. The stock last closed at $449.04, which puts the model's fair value 10.4% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Teradyne, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 30 Sep 2026
Teradyne, Inc. was established in 1960 and is headquartered in North Reading, Massachusetts. It is a global leader specializing in the creation, production, sale, and maintenance of automated testing solutions.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $402.25 a share for Teradyne, Inc. on 30 Sep 2026. This was the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $395.98, so the fair value moved +1.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $368.83 to $633.42, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade was Medium.
The company's overall quality score was 62 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares Teradyne, Inc. with TE Connectivity plc, NXP Semiconductors N.V., Monolithic Power Systems, Inc., Microchip Technology Incorporated, ON Semiconductor Corporation, Qnity Electronics, Inc., Entegris, Inc., and MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. Around the last 8 earnings reports, the median size of the stock's moves, ignoring direction, was 14.5%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 30 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give TER?
The calibrated range for TER over 63 trading days is $368.83 to $633.42. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that TER's own options imply (76% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $281.84 to $571.69. In 50% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does TER score on business quality?
Teradyne's overall quality score is 62 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 68 | 36.6%ROIC | 55.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 45 | 0.70xFCF / net income | 0.80x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 84 | 13.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 13.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 39 | 0.8%Net buybacks / market value | 0.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 84 | -0.17xNet debt / EBITDA | -0.09x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 32 | 2.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.1 pts |
How does TER compare with similar companies?
The companies in semiconductors closest to Teradyne in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEL TE Connectivity plc | $220.36 | $243.03 | +10.3% | Fairly valued |
| NXPI NXP Semiconductors N.V. | $243.66 | $254.86 | +4.6% | Fairly valued |
| MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. | $1,439.73 | $1,155.65 | -19.7% | Overvalued |
| MCHP Microchip Technology Incorporated | $81.32 | $101.10 | +24.3% | Undervalued |
| ON ON Semiconductor Corporation | $84.89 | $108.89 | +28.3% | Undervalued |
| Q Qnity Electronics, Inc. | $131.48 | $146.65 | +11.5% | Fairly valued |
| ENTG Entegris, Inc. | $166.47 | $165.66 | -0.5% | Fairly valued |
| MTSI MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. | $321.60 | $278.62 | -13.4% | Fairly valued |
When does TER report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Teradyne's next earnings report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 9.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. TER's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 22.0% over one month.
How TER moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 14.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 28 Jul 2026 | -4.6% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | -23.8% |
| 2 Feb 2026 | +17.4% |
| 28 Oct 2025 | +17.9% |
| 29 Jul 2025 | +18.1% |
| 28 Apr 2025 | -2.9% |
| 29 Jan 2025 | -5.6% |
| 23 Oct 2024 | -11.7% |
Teradyne at a glance
Teradyne, Inc., established in 1960 and headquartered in North Reading, Massachusetts, is a global leader specializing in the creation, production, sale, and maintenance of automated testing solutions.
- Market value
- $62.3B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $6.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +61.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- 3.34
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Teradyne on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for TER was $395.98. As of 30 Sep 2026 it is $402.25, a change of +1.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Teradyne's valuation
Is Teradyne stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, TER reads as Fairly valued as of 30 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $402.25 a share against a last close of $449.04, a gap of -10.4%.
What is TER's fair value?
$402.25 a share as of 30 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $281.84 to $571.69.
What price range does the model give TER?
$368.83 to $633.42 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Teradyne report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has TER moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 14.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was -23.8% around the report of 28 Apr 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for TER is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.