NASDAQ: MTSI · Semiconductors
MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) at $216.95 a share. The stock last closed at $190.35, which puts the model's fair value 14.0% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $214.30 to $216.95 (+1.2%). The peer group changed: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $190.35 is 14.0% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 4 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 24% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give MTSI?
The calibrated range for MTSI over 63 trading days is $148.14 to $259.01. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that MTSI's own options imply (84% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $146.45 to $316.51. In 43% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI), along with its affiliated entities, specialises in the design and production of sophisticated analog semiconductor solutions.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $216.95 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $214.30, so the fair value moved +1.2%. The model's reason, in its own words: "The peer group changed: most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $186.56 to $313.50, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence Medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model gives the business an overall quality score of 50 out of 100, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Growth quality stands out at 87, with trailing revenue growth of 32.6% against a peer median of 26.4%. Earnings quality is 14, with free cash flow to net income of 0.49x against a peer median of 1.11x. Capital discipline is 23, with net buybacks at 0.0% of market value against a peer median of 0.2%. The model compares the company with Entegris, Inc. (ENTG), SiTime Corporation (SITM), Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (LSCC), Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (SWKS), Qnity Electronics, Inc. (Q), Semtech Corporation (SMTC), ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) and Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does MTSI report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
MACOM Technology Solutions's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 15.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. MTSI's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 24.3% over one month.
On 5 Nov 2026 MTSI moved 18.4% in one session, against the 4.9% a day that options had priced: 3.7 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across MTSI's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 13.0%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in MTSI
How does MTSI score on business quality?
MACOM Technology Solutions's overall quality score is 50 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 60 | 9.7%ROIC | 8.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 14 | 0.49xFCF / net income | 1.11x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 87 | 32.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 26.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 23 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 46 | 0.79xNet debt / EBITDA | -0.43x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 55 | 9.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 12.0 pts |
How does MTSI compare with similar companies?
The companies in semiconductors closest to MACOM Technology Solutions in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENTG Entegris, Inc. | $124.75 | $148.54 | +19.1% | Undervalued |
| SITM SiTime Corporation | $355.00 | $382.60 | +7.8% | Fairly valued |
| LSCC Lattice Semiconductor Corporation | $98.03 | $71.09 | -27.5% | Overvalued |
| SWKS Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | $81.21 | $94.88 | +16.8% | Undervalued |
| Q Qnity Electronics, Inc. | $110.04 | $117.58 | +6.9% | Fairly valued |
| SMTC Semtech Corporation | $91.54 | $133.76 | +46.1% | Undervalued |
| ON ON Semiconductor Corporation | $63.01 | $90.27 | +43.3% | Undervalued |
| ONTO Onto Innovation Inc. | $155.99 | $206.26 | +32.2% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for MTSI, the peer-implied price, is $166.29 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
MACOM Technology Solutions at a glance
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc., along with its affiliated entities, specializes in the design and production of sophisticated analog semiconductor solutions.
- Market value
- $17.9B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +36.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- 2.57
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. MTSI was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices MACOM Technology Solutions on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for MTSI was $214.30. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $216.95, a change of +1.2%. The peer group changed: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about MACOM Technology Solutions's valuation
Is MACOM Technology Solutions stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MTSI reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $216.95 a share against a last close of $190.35, a gap of +14.0%.
What is MTSI's fair value?
$216.95 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $146.45 to $316.51.
What price range does the model give MTSI?
$148.14 to $259.01 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does MACOM Technology Solutions report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MTSI moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 13.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +18.0% around the report of 6 Aug 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MTSI is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on MTSI
The model holds no idea open on MTSI today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on MTSI with their outcomes. A free account is enough.