NYSE: TWLO · Infrastructure Software
Twilio (TWLO) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Twilio (TWLO) at $252.35 a share. The stock last closed at $200.96, which puts the model's fair value 25.6% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Twilio Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $292.31 to $252.35 (-13.7%). The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $200.96 is 25.6% below it: Undervalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 11 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 18% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give TWLO?
The calibrated range for TWLO over 63 trading days is $166.24 to $253.69. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that TWLO's own options imply (64% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $164.53 to $378.29. In 65% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Twilio Inc. (TWLO) works in infrastructure software. It offers a cloud-based communications platform that lets developers build, scale and manage customer engagement features inside their software applications, across the U.S. and international markets.
Faircurve's model puts the fair value at $252.35 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations, on 31 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $292.31; the fair value moved -13.7%. In the model's words, "The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $178.85 to $265.40. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium. It reflects input completeness, the number and agreement of comparable companies, and the spread of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Twilio scores 67 out of 100 on the model's overall quality measure, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Capital discipline is highest at 93, with net buybacks at 2.1% of market value against a peer median of 0.8%. Earnings quality is lowest at 38, with free cash flow to net income at 0.97x against a peer median of 3.67x. The model compares Twilio with Okta, Inc. (OKTA), VeriSign, Inc. (VRSN), Corpay, Inc. (CPAY), Zscaler, Inc. (ZS), Block, Inc. (XYZ), F5, Inc. (FFIV), Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX) and Gen Digital Inc. (GEN).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does TWLO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Twilio's next earnings report is scheduled for 11 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 8.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 7 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. TWLO's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 18.4% over one month.
How TWLO moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 20.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2026 | -19.2% |
| 6 Aug 2026 | +24.9% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | +30.1% |
| 12 Feb 2026 | +2.3% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | +20.8% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | -24.2% |
| 13 Feb 2025 | -13.4% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | +13.1% |
How does TWLO score on business quality?
Twilio's overall quality score is 67 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 76 | 4.5%ROIC | 2.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 38 | 0.97xFCF / net income | 3.67x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 70 | 13.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 15.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 93 | 2.1%Net buybacks / market value | 0.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 79 | -0.01xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.98x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 57 | 8.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 8.8 pts |
How does TWLO compare with similar companies?
The companies in infrastructure software closest to Twilio in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKTA Okta, Inc. | $171.16 | $196.62 | +14.9% | Fairly valued |
| VRSN VeriSign, Inc. | $312.06 | $273.25 | -12.4% | Fairly valued |
| CPAY Corpay, Inc. | $447.00 | $428.31 | -4.2% | Fairly valued |
| ZS Zscaler, Inc. | $203.88 | $261.10 | +28.1% | Undervalued |
| XYZ Block, Inc. | $84.04 | $75.87 | -9.7% | Fairly valued |
| FFIV F5, Inc. | $311.74 | $431.47 | +38.4% | Undervalued |
| NTNX Nutanix, Inc. | $58.55 | $65.10 | +11.2% | Fairly valued |
| GEN Gen Digital Inc. | $30.60 | $41.11 | +34.3% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for TWLO, the peer-implied price, is $329.71 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All infrastructure software stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Twilio at a glance
Twilio Inc. offers a comprehensive cloud-based communications platform, empowering developers to build, scale, and manage customer engagement features directly within their software applications across both U.S. and international markets.
- Market value
- $31.5B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Infrastructure Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $6.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +18.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 17
- Beta to the US market
- 1.69
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. TWLO was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Twilio on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for TWLO was $292.31. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $252.35, a change of -13.7%. The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Twilio's valuation
Is Twilio stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, TWLO reads as Undervalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $252.35 a share against a last close of $200.96, a gap of +25.6%.
What is TWLO's fair value?
$252.35 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $164.53 to $378.29.
What price range does the model give TWLO?
$166.24 to $253.69 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Twilio report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 11 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has TWLO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 20.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +30.1% around the report of 30 Apr 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for TWLO is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on TWLO
The model holds no idea open on TWLO today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on TWLO with their outcomes. A free account is enough.