NASDAQ: PATK · Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances
Patrick Industries (PATK) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 28 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Patrick Industries (PATK) at $57.01 a share. The stock last closed at $67.16, which puts the model's fair value 15.1% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Patrick Industries, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 28 Sep 2026
Patrick Industries, Inc. serves as a primary provider of essential components, construction products, and various materials to key sectors such as the recreational vehicle (RV), marine, manufactured housing, and industrial markets.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $57.01 a share for Patrick Industries, Inc. on 28 Sep 2026. This is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave $57.62, so the fair value moved -1.1%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $47.83 to $69.51, built from the fair value. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, calibrated weekly against realised prices, 4,327 past valuations. The evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score is 42 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares the company with Interface, Inc. (TILE), HNI Corporation (HNI), La-Z-Boy Incorporated (LZB), Mohawk Industries, Inc. (MHK), and Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. (ETD). The stock's median move around the last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 4.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 28 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give PATK?
The calibrated range for PATK over 63 trading days is $47.83 to $69.51. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $34.42 to $83.15. In 35% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does PATK score on business quality?
Patrick Industries's overall quality score is 42 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 30 | 7.4%ROIC | 9.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 23 | 0.87xFCF / net income | 1.34x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 44 | 6.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 4.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 65 | 4.7%Net buybacks / market value | 1.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 30 | 3.72xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.23x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 0.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.0 pts |
How does PATK compare with similar companies?
The companies in furnishings, fixtures & appliances closest to Patrick Industries in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WHR Whirlpool Corporation | $30.31 | $19.83 | -34.6% | Low evidence grade |
| TILE Interface, Inc. | $34.89 | $36.65 | +5.0% | Fairly valued |
| HNI HNI Corporation | $46.82 | $47.56 | +1.6% | Fairly valued |
| MLKN MillerKnoll, Inc. | $20.24 | $18.76 | -7.3% | Low evidence grade |
| LZB La-Z-Boy Incorporated | $29.94 | $31.66 | +5.7% | Fairly valued |
| MBC MasterBrand, Inc. | $7.02 | $6.28 | -10.5% | Low evidence grade |
| MHK Mohawk Industries, Inc. | $126.41 | $146.98 | +16.3% | Undervalued |
| ETD Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. | $21.06 | $20.28 | -3.7% | Fairly valued |
All furnishings, fixtures & appliances stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does PATK report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Patrick Industries's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 12.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How PATK moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | -4.7% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | -4.7% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | +4.6% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | +5.5% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | -3.0% |
| 1 May 2025 | +9.2% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | -3.0% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | -13.6% |
Patrick Industries at a glance
Patrick Industries, Inc. serves as a primary provider of essential components, construction products, and various materials to key sectors such as the recreational vehicle (RV), marine, manufactured housing, and industrial markets.
- Market value
- $2.3B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -1.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- 0.46
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Patrick Industries on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for PATK was $57.62. As of 28 Sep 2026 it is $57.01, a change of -1.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Patrick Industries's valuation
Is Patrick Industries stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, PATK reads as Overvalued as of 28 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $57.01 a share against a last close of $67.16, a gap of -15.1%.
What is PATK's fair value?
$57.01 a share as of 28 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $34.42 to $83.15.
What price range does the model give PATK?
$47.83 to $69.51 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Patrick Industries report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PATK moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was -13.6% around the report of 31 Oct 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PATK is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.