NYSE: SGI · Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances
Somnigroup International (SGI) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Somnigroup International (SGI) at $68.79 a share. The stock last closed at $67.87, which puts the model's fair value 1.4% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Somnigroup International Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $68.79, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $67.87 is 1.4% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNo report date on file. Options prices imply a move of about 15% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give SGI?
The calibrated range for SGI over 63 trading days is $57.98 to $82.35. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that SGI's own options imply (53% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $46.52 to $96.23. In 57% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Somnigroup International Inc., operating as Somni, describes itself as a leader in advanced sleep technology and holistic wellness solutions. It engineers products designed to improve sleep quality.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $68.79 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $68.54, so the fair value moved +0.4%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $60.12 to $83.87. It is built around the price implied by the stock's own options volatility and calibrated weekly against realised prices. Across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed on 31 Oct 2026, ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium. The grade reflects how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model's overall quality score is 67 out of 100, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Growth quality is the strongest factor at 95, with trailing revenue growth of 51.6% against a peer median of 3.0%. The balance sheet scores 21, with net debt to EBITDA of 5.11x against a peer median of 1.16x. The comparable companies are Mohawk Industries, HNI Corporation, Patrick Industries, Interface and La-Z-Boy.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does SGI report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 11.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. SGI's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 15.3% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across SGI's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.2%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in SGI
How does SGI score on business quality?
Somnigroup International's overall quality score is 67 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 45 | 7.7%ROIC | 7.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 90 | 1.44xFCF / net income | 1.25x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 95 | 51.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 61 | 0.2%Net buybacks / market value | 0.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 21 | 5.11xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.16x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 79 | 1.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.1 pts |
How does SGI compare with similar companies?
The companies in furnishings, fixtures & appliances closest to Somnigroup International in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MHK Mohawk Industries, Inc. | $150.88 | $175.98 | +16.6% | Undervalued |
| HNI HNI Corporation | $48.31 | $50.23 | +4.0% | Fairly valued |
| PATK Patrick Industries, Inc. | $83.11 | $73.70 | -11.3% | Fairly valued |
| TILE Interface, Inc. | $37.82 | $39.20 | +3.6% | Fairly valued |
| WHR Whirlpool Corporation | $31.54 | $10.47 | -66.8% | Gap wider than 60% |
| MLKN MillerKnoll, Inc. | $21.99 | $24.27 | +10.4% | Low evidence grade |
| MBC MasterBrand, Inc. | $7.08 | $5.41 | -23.6% | Low evidence grade |
| LZB La-Z-Boy Incorporated | $32.62 | $40.30 | +23.5% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for SGI, the peer-implied price, is $93.81 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All furnishings, fixtures & appliances stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Somnigroup International at a glance
Somnigroup International Inc., operating as Somni, leads the field in advanced sleep technology and holistic wellness solutions. They engineer groundbreaking products specifically designed to elevate sleep quality.
- Market value
- $14.6B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $11.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +18.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 1.00
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.1% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. SGI was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Somnigroup International on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for SGI was $68.54. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $68.79, a change of +0.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Somnigroup International's valuation
Is Somnigroup International stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, SGI reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $68.79 a share against a last close of $67.87, a gap of +1.4%.
What is SGI's fair value?
$68.79 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $46.52 to $96.23.
What price range does the model give SGI?
$57.98 to $82.35 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
How much has SGI moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +14.6% around the report of 6 Nov 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SGI is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on SGI
The model holds no idea open on SGI today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on SGI with their outcomes. A free account is enough.