NYSE: BILL · Application Software
Bill.com Holdings (BILL) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Bill.com Holdings (BILL) at $52.32 a share. The stock last closed at $50.89, which puts the model's fair value 2.8% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Bill.com Holdings, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $61.65 to $52.32 (-15.1%). The peer group changed: part of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $50.89 is 2.8% below it: Fairly valued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNo report date on file. Options prices imply a move of about 19% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give BILL?
The calibrated range for BILL over 63 trading days is $41.81 to $64.79. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that BILL's own options imply (66% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $39.82 to $66.71. In 60% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Bill.com Holdings, Inc. is an application software company. It offers a cloud platform that automates core financial operations for small and medium-sized businesses worldwide.
Faircurve's model put the fair value of Bill.com Holdings at $52.32 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $61.65, so the fair value moved -15.1%. The model's reason: "The peer group changed: part of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $43.41 to $64.56. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The business scores 31 out of 100 on the model's overall quality measure against comparable companies. Capital discipline is the highest factor at 61, with net buybacks at 13.5% of market value against a peer median of 1.4%. The balance sheet scores 12, with net debt to EBITDA of 6.88x against a peer median of -3.42x. Profitability scores 30, with ROIC of 0.4% against a peer median of 4.7%. The comparable companies are Clear Secure, Life360, Agilysys, Alarm.com, Pegasystems and SPS Commerce.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does BILL report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 10.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 7 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. BILL's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 19.1% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across BILL's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 16.1%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in BILL
How does BILL score on business quality?
Bill.com Holdings's overall quality score is 31 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 30 | 0.4%ROIC | 4.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 22 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 48 | 13.0%Revenue growth, trailing | 19.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 61 | 13.5%Net buybacks / market value | 1.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 12 | 6.88xNet debt / EBITDA | -3.42x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 11 | 14.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 5.7 pts |
How does BILL compare with similar companies?
The companies in application software closest to Bill.com Holdings in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QTWO Q2 Holdings, Inc. | $75.62 | $86.28 | +14.1% | Low evidence grade |
| YOU Clear Secure, Inc. | $56.50 | $45.00 | -20.4% | Overvalued |
| LIF Life360, Inc. | $46.87 | $42.45 | -9.4% | Fairly valued |
| NATL NCR Atleos Corporation | $46.99 | $56.83 | +20.9% | Low evidence grade |
| AGYS Agilysys, Inc. | $119.76 | $106.45 | -11.1% | Fairly valued |
| ALRM Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. | $67.03 | $70.54 | +5.2% | Fairly valued |
| PEGA Pegasystems Inc. | $33.57 | $42.02 | +25.2% | Undervalued |
| SPSC SPS Commerce, Inc. | $82.58 | $105.14 | +27.3% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for BILL, the peer-implied price, is $65.35 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Bill.com Holdings at a glance
Bill.com Holdings, Inc. offers a powerful cloud-based platform designed to streamline, digitize, and automate the core financial operations for small and medium-sized businesses worldwide.
- Market value
- $4.1B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Application Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +10.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 13
- Beta to the US market
- 1.29
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. BILL was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Bill.com Holdings on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for BILL was $61.65. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $52.32, a change of -15.1%. The peer group changed: part of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Bill.com Holdings's valuation
Is Bill.com Holdings stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, BILL reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $52.32 a share against a last close of $50.89, a gap of +2.8%.
What is BILL's fair value?
$52.32 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $39.82 to $66.71.
What price range does the model give BILL?
$41.81 to $64.79 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
How much has BILL moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 16.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was -36.0% around the report of 6 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for BILL is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on BILL
The model holds no idea open on BILL today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on BILL with their outcomes. A free account is enough.