NASDAQ: RGLD · Gold
Royal Gold (RGLD) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Royal Gold (RGLD) at $211.01 a share. The stock last closed at $261.28, which puts the model's fair value 19.2% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Royal Gold, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $211.01, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $261.28 is 19.2% above it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextNext report on 17 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 11% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give RGLD?
The calibrated range for RGLD over 63 trading days is $232.92 to $300.90. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that RGLD's own options imply (39% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $160.30 to $277.71. In 41% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Royal Gold, Inc. and its subsidiaries engage in the acquisition and oversight of precious metal streams, royalty agreements, and related rights.
Faircurve's model put the fair value of Royal Gold at $211.01 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $209.76, so the fair value moved +0.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $207.80 to $275.91. It is built around the price, using the volatility the stock's own options imply. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade does not say whether the fair value is right.
Royal Gold scores 40 out of 100 on the model's overall quality score, a composite of six factors measured against comparable companies. Stability is the highest factor, at 100, with EBITDA margin downside volatility over five years of 1.6 pts against a peer median of 13.7 pts. Profitability is the lowest, at 16, with ROIC of 10.2% against a peer median of 18.6%. The model compares the company with Newmont Corporation (NEM), DuPont de Nemours, Inc. (DD), Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (RS), International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. (IFF) and Masco Corporation (MAS).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does RGLD report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Royal Gold's next earnings report is scheduled for 17 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 6.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. RGLD's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 11.2% over one month.
On 5 Nov 2026 RGLD moved 6.2% in one session, against the 2.7% a day that options had priced: 2.3 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across RGLD's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.1%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in RGLD
How does RGLD score on business quality?
Royal Gold's overall quality score is 40 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 16 | 10.2%ROIC | 18.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 25 | 0.00xFCF / net income | 0.81x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 59 | 44.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 63.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 44 | 0.3%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 36 | 0.18xNet debt / EBITDA | -0.18x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 1.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 13.7 pts |
How does RGLD compare with similar companies?
The companies in gold closest to Royal Gold in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEM Newmont Corporation | $119.71 | $105.12 | -12.2% | Fairly valued |
| IP International Paper Company | $34.24 | $33.14 | -3.2% | Low evidence grade |
| DD DuPont de Nemours, Inc. | $144.93 | $146.53 | +1.1% | Fairly valued |
| CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | $118.57 | $127.64 | +7.6% | Low evidence grade |
| RS Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | $414.04 | $418.36 | +1.0% | Fairly valued |
| IFF International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. | $86.36 | $79.40 | -8.1% | Fairly valued |
| MAS Masco Corporation | $83.83 | $84.73 | +1.1% | Fairly valued |
| DOW Dow Inc. | $31.98 | $34.97 | +9.3% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for RGLD, the peer-implied price, is $97.00 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Royal Gold at a glance
Royal Gold, Inc. and its subsidiaries engage in the acquisition and oversight of precious metal streams, royalty agreements, and related rights.
- Market value
- $19.4B
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Gold
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +80.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 1.38
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Royal Gold on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for RGLD was $209.76. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $211.01, a change of +0.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Royal Gold's valuation
Is Royal Gold stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts RGLD's fair value at $211.01 a share against a last close of $261.28, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is RGLD's fair value?
$211.01 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $160.30 to $277.71.
What price range does the model give RGLD?
$232.92 to $300.90 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Royal Gold report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 17 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has RGLD moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was +13.1% around the report of 4 Nov 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for RGLD is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on RGLD
The model holds no idea open on RGLD today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on RGLD with their outcomes. A free account is enough.