NYSE: RITM ยท Diversified REITs
Rithm Capital (RITM) fair value and price range
As of 2 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values Rithm Capital (RITM) at $16.13 a share. The stock last closed at $9.22, which puts the model's fair value 74.9% above the price. The fair value sits more than 60% away from the price. Faircurve gives no verdict on a gap wider than 60%.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Rithm Capital Corp.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices and the next earnings date. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 2 Nov 2026 moved the fair value from $20.65 to $16.13 (-21.9%). The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method.
What the model makes of itThe price of $9.22 is 74.9% below it. The fair value sits more than 60% away from the price. Faircurve gives no verdict on a gap wider than 60%.
What's nextNext report on 2 Feb 2027. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give RITM?
The calibrated range for RITM over 63 trading days is $13.07 to $19.27. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 30%+ above price, the calibrated range has held the price 23% of the time over 63 trading days, and 76% ended below it; the typical move was +0.7%.
The model's own range is $15.07 to $17.18.
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When does RITM report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Rithm Capital's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across RITM's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.3%.
How does RITM compare with similar companies?
The companies in diversified reits closest to Rithm Capital in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPRT Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. | $27.43 | $22.46 | -18.1% | Overvalued |
| BNL Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. | $17.98 | $18.66 | +3.8% | Fairly valued |
| WPC W. P. Carey Inc. | $64.63 | $45.69 | -29.3% | Overvalued |
| GNL Global Net Lease, Inc. | $6.92 | $8.16 | +17.9% | Undervalued |
| AAT American Assets Trust, Inc. | $21.73 | $25.08 | +15.4% | Undervalued |
| VICI VICI Properties Inc. | $24.42 | $30.62 | +25.4% | Undervalued |
| SAFE Safehold Inc. | $11.23 | $17.89 | +59.3% | Undervalued |
| JBGS JBG SMITH Properties | $11.72 | $6.19 | -47.2% | Overvalued |
Rithm Capital at a glance
Rithm Capital Corp. operates as an asset manager focused on real estate, credit, and financial services in the United States. It operates through Origination and Servicing, Residential Transitional Lending, and Asset Management and Investment Portfolio.
- Market value
- $5.2B
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Diversified REITs
- Beta to the US market
- 0.55
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model values Rithm Capital in up to three ways and blends those that could be applied; the range around the fair value comes from 2,000 simulations of the dividend model. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for RITM was $20.65. As of 2 Nov 2026 it is $16.13, a change of -21.9%. The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Rithm Capital's valuation
Is Rithm Capital stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts RITM's fair value at $16.13 a share against a last close of $9.22, as of 2 Nov 2026. The fair value sits more than 60% away from the price. Faircurve gives no verdict on a gap wider than 60%.
What is RITM's fair value?
$16.13 a share as of 2 Nov 2026. The fair value blends the valuation methods that could be applied, out of three: a cash-flow multiple against comparable companies, a dividend model, and the value of the properties. The model's own range is $15.07 to $17.18.
What price range does the model give RITM?
$13.07 to $19.27 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Rithm Capital report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has RITM moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was +8.2% around the report of 28 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for RITM is high. For real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at the dividend record: at least three years of paid dividends with no cut. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on RITM
The model holds no idea open on RITM today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on RITM with their outcomes. A free account is enough.