NYSE: SAFE · Diversified REITs
Safehold (SAFE) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Safehold (SAFE) at $16.92 a share. The stock last closed at $12.06, which puts the model's fair value 40.3% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Safehold Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Safehold Inc. (SAFE) is transforming real estate ownership by offering property owners a method to extract value from the land supporting their structures. It operates in Real Estate, specifically Diversified REITs.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $16.92 a share for Safehold Inc. This fair value blends a cash-flow multiple against comparable companies, a dividend model, and the value of the properties. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $17.16, meaning the fair value moved -1.4%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $14.12 to $20.51, built from the fair value. This range held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, over 4,809 past valuations. The evidence grade for this valuation is High, based on the dividend record.
Safehold Inc. is compared with JBG SMITH Properties (JBGS), American Assets Trust, Inc. (AAT), Global Net Lease, Inc. (GNL), Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. (BNL), Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. (EPRT), W. P. Carey Inc. (WPC), and VICI Properties Inc. (VICI). Around its last 8 earnings reports, the stock moved -1.0% on 30 Jul 2026, -6.0% on 30 Apr 2026, -4.0% on 11 Feb 2026, -11.3% on 5 Nov 2025, -0.6% on 5 Aug 2025, -2.0% on 6 May 2025, +7.9% on 5 Feb 2025, and -2.3% on 28 Oct 2024. The median move, ignoring direction, was 3.2%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give SAFE?
The calibrated range for SAFE over 63 trading days is $14.12 to $20.51. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 30%+ above price, the calibrated range has held the price 29% of the time over 63 trading days, and 71% ended below it; the typical move was +4.4%.
The model's own range is $15.46 to $18.51.
How does SAFE compare with similar companies?
The companies in diversified reits closest to Safehold in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JBGS JBG SMITH Properties | $10.56 | $5.68 | -46.2% | Overvalued |
| AAT American Assets Trust, Inc. | $21.55 | $22.71 | +5.4% | Fairly valued |
| GNL Global Net Lease, Inc. | $8.25 | $8.63 | +4.6% | Fairly valued |
| BNL Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. | $18.56 | $19.62 | +5.7% | Fairly valued |
| RITM Rithm Capital Corp. | $8.71 | $15.32 | +75.9% | Gap wider than 60% |
| EPRT Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. | $25.90 | $20.76 | -19.8% | Overvalued |
| WPC W. P. Carey Inc. | $64.52 | $48.51 | -24.8% | Overvalued |
| VICI VICI Properties Inc. | $22.65 | $32.28 | +42.5% | Undervalued |
When does SAFE report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Safehold's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How SAFE moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | -1.0% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | -6.0% |
| 11 Feb 2026 | -4.0% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | -11.3% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | -0.6% |
| 6 May 2025 | -2.0% |
| 5 Feb 2025 | +7.9% |
| 28 Oct 2024 | -2.3% |
Safehold at a glance
Safehold Inc. (NYSE: SAFE) is fundamentally transforming real estate ownership by offering property owners an innovative and superior method to extract the inherent value from the land supporting their structures.
- Market value
- $864M
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Diversified REITs
- Beta to the US market
- 0.43
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model values Safehold in up to three ways and blends those that could be applied; the range around the fair value comes from 2,000 simulations of the dividend model. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for SAFE was $17.16. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $16.92, a change of -1.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Safehold's valuation
Is Safehold stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, SAFE reads as Undervalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $16.92 a share against a last close of $12.06, a gap of +40.3%.
What is SAFE's fair value?
$16.92 a share as of 3 Oct 2026. The fair value blends the valuation methods that could be applied, out of three: a cash-flow multiple against comparable companies, a dividend model, and the value of the properties. The model's own range is $15.46 to $18.51.
What price range does the model give SAFE?
$14.12 to $20.51 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Safehold report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SAFE moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was -11.3% around the report of 5 Nov 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SAFE is high. For real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at the dividend record: at least three years of paid dividends with no cut. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.