NASDAQ: SHOP · Application Software
Shopify (SHOP) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 10 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Shopify (SHOP) at $136.65 a share. The stock last closed at $176.52, which puts the model's fair value 22.6% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 13 Oct 2026. Shopify Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 10 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $132.36 to $136.65 (+3.2%). The multiple the model anchors on moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $176.52 is 22.6% above it: Overvalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 3 Nov 2026. Options prices imply a move of about 19% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 17 Oct 2026.
What price range does the model give SHOP?
The calibrated range for SHOP over 63 trading days is $146.00 to $231.65. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that SHOP's own options imply (66% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $93.35 to $197.80. In 30% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 10 Oct 2026
Shopify Inc. functions as a premier commerce technology company, providing an extensive platform and associated services to empower businesses worldwide.
Faircurve's model valued Shopify Inc. at $136.65 a share on 10 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 3 Oct 2026, gave $132.36, and the fair value moved +3.2% as the multiple the model anchors on moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $146.00 to $231.65, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026); ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
The model's overall quality score is 46 out of 100, a composite of six quality factors against comparable companies. Growth quality scores 91 with revenue growth, trailing 30.1% against a peer median of 10.8%. Capital discipline scores 64 with net buybacks / market value 0.9% against a peer median of 3.8%. Balance sheet scores 71 with net debt / EBITDA -0.62x against a peer median of 1.86x. Profitability scores 37 (ROIC 13.6%, peer median 19.5%), Earnings quality scores 16 (FCF / net income 1.22x, peer median 2.18x), and Stability scores 0 (EBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y 15.0 pts, peer median 4.4 pts). The model compares Shopify Inc. with Salesforce, Inc., ServiceNow, Inc., and Adobe Inc.
Written from the figures on this page for the 10 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does SHOP report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Shopify's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 13 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 6.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 9 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. SHOP's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 19.0% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across SHOP's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 18.1%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in SHOP
How does SHOP score on business quality?
Shopify's overall quality score is 46 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 37 | 13.6%ROIC | 19.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 16 | 1.22xFCF / net income | 2.18x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 91 | 30.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 10.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 64 | 0.9%Net buybacks / market value | 3.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 71 | -0.62xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.86x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 15.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 4.4 pts |
How does SHOP compare with similar companies?
The companies in application software closest to Shopify in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRM Salesforce, Inc. | $238.01 | $249.47 | +4.8% | Fairly valued |
| NOW ServiceNow, Inc. | $138.61 | $121.87 | -12.1% | Fairly valued |
| UBER Uber Technologies, Inc. | $71.32 | $87.44 | +22.6% | Low evidence grade |
| ADP Automatic Data Processing, Inc. | $275.90 | $266.20 | -3.5% | Low evidence grade |
| DDOG Datadog, Inc. | $283.34 | $247.85 | -12.5% | Data under review |
| CDNS Cadence Design Systems, Inc. | $334.20 | $371.78 | +11.2% | Low evidence grade |
| ADBE Adobe Inc. | $236.28 | $281.69 | +19.2% | Undervalued |
| APP AppLovin Corporation | $272.28 | $318.95 | +17.1% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for SHOP, the peer-implied price, is $44.57 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Shopify at a glance
Shopify Inc. functions as a premier commerce technology company, providing an extensive platform and associated services to empower businesses worldwide.
- Market value
- $221.7B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Application Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $18.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +30.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 27
- Beta to the US market
- 1.83
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 13 Oct 2026, 53.0% of the 1,094 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. SHOP was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Shopify on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 3 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for SHOP was $132.36. As of 10 Oct 2026 it is $136.65, a change of +3.2%. The multiple the model anchors on moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Shopify's valuation
Is Shopify stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, SHOP reads as Overvalued as of 10 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $136.65 a share against a last close of $176.52, a gap of -22.6%.
What is SHOP's fair value?
$136.65 a share as of 10 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $93.35 to $197.80.
What price range does the model give SHOP?
$146.00 to $231.65 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026.
When does Shopify report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SHOP moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 18.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was +27.9% around the report of 12 Nov 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SHOP is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on SHOP
The model holds no idea open on SHOP today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on SHOP with their outcomes. A free account is enough.