NASDAQ: STX · Computer Hardware
Seagate Technology (STX) fair value and price range
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Seagate Technology (STX) at $817.51 a share. The stock last closed at $848.99, which puts the model's fair value 3.7% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Seagate Technology Holdings plc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Seagate Technology Holdings plc, headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, is a global provider of advanced data storage technology and solutions, with operations spanning Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and other international regions.
Faircurve's model valued the company at $817.51 a share on 3 Oct 2026, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $818.23, so the fair value moved -0.1%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $706.22 to $1,151.70, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply and calibrated weekly against realised prices, which held the price 60% of the time at this horizon in 3,562 past valuations. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The company has an overall quality score of 78 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability score is 100 with ROIC 81.8% against a peer median of 19.0%. Faircurve's model compares it with Western Digital Corporation (WDC), Sandisk Corporation (SNDK), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE), Everpure, Inc. (P), NetApp, Inc. (NTAP), and HP Inc. (HPQ). The stock moved -6.4% on 28 Jul 2026 and +8.0% on 28 Apr 2026 around its last two earnings reports.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give STX?
The calibrated range for STX over 63 trading days is $706.22 to $1,151.70. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that STX's own options imply (69% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $493.45 to $1,323.47. In 47% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does STX score on business quality?
Seagate Technology's overall quality score is 78 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 81.8%ROIC | 19.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 79 | 1.04xFCF / net income | 0.73x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 87 | 34.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 31.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 67 | 0.1%Net buybacks / market value | 0.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 55 | 0.51xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.17x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 25 | 7.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.8 pts |
How does STX compare with similar companies?
The companies in computer hardware closest to Seagate Technology in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WDC Western Digital Corporation | $415.29 | $463.63 | +11.6% | Fairly valued |
| SNDK Sandisk Corporation | $1,719.99 | $2,394.77 | +39.2% | Undervalued |
| ANET Arista Networks, Inc. | $207.35 | $192.12 | -7.3% | Fairly valued |
| DELL Dell Technologies Inc. | $562.52 | $551.06 | -2.0% | Low evidence grade |
| HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company | $69.33 | $71.62 | +3.3% | Fairly valued |
| P Everpure, Inc. | $140.14 | $125.51 | -10.4% | Fairly valued |
| NTAP NetApp, Inc. | $226.27 | $204.03 | -9.8% | Fairly valued |
| HPQ HP Inc. | $32.12 | $37.06 | +15.4% | Undervalued |
When does STX report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Seagate Technology's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 9.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. STX's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 20.1% over one month.
On 2 Oct 2026 STX moved 10.2% in one session, against the 4.5% a day that options had priced: 2.3 times the implied size.
How STX moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 9.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 28 Jul 2026 | -6.4% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | +8.0% |
| 27 Jan 2026 | +23.6% |
| 28 Oct 2025 | +15.3% |
| 29 Jul 2025 | -2.0% |
| 29 Apr 2025 | +10.8% |
| 21 Jan 2025 | +10.8% |
| 22 Oct 2024 | -7.9% |
Seagate Technology at a glance
Seagate Technology Holdings plc, headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, is a global provider of advanced data storage technology and solutions, with operations spanning Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and other international regions.
- Market value
- $190.4B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Computer Hardware
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $20.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +53.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 12
- Beta to the US market
- 2.58
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Seagate Technology on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for STX was $818.23. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $817.51, a change of -0.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Seagate Technology's valuation
Is Seagate Technology stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts STX's fair value at $817.51 a share against a last close of $848.99, as of 3 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is STX's fair value?
$817.51 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $493.45 to $1,323.47.
What price range does the model give STX?
$706.22 to $1,151.70 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Seagate Technology report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has STX moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 9.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +23.6% around the report of 27 Jan 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for STX is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.