NASDAQ: STRL · Engineering & Construction
Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 30 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) at $553.29 a share. The stock last closed at $533.42, which puts the model's fair value 3.7% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 30 Sep 2026
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. operates across three distinct business segments: transportation, e-infrastructure, and building solutions.
Faircurve's model on 30 Sep 2026 gave a fair value of $553.29 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -0.6% since the previous run, which was on 26 Sep 2026 and gave $556.89. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $464.20 to $674.64, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score is 67 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. with Jacobs Solutions Inc., APi Group Corporation, MasTec, Inc., Tetra Tech, Inc., Dycom Industries, Inc., EMCOR Group, Inc., Ferrovial SE, and Fluor Corporation. The median move around the last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 11.4%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 30 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give STRL?
The calibrated range for STRL over 63 trading days is $464.20 to $674.64. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $391.03 to $773.50. In 58% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does STRL score on business quality?
Sterling Infrastructure's overall quality score is 67 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 80 | 37.6%ROIC | 11.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 74 | 1.11xFCF / net income | 1.01x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 80 | 17.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 16.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 31 | 0.4%Net buybacks / market value | 0.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 90 | -0.18xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.15x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 3.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.3 pts |
How does STRL compare with similar companies?
The companies in engineering & construction closest to Sterling Infrastructure in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J Jacobs Solutions Inc. | $138.06 | $131.52 | -4.7% | Fairly valued |
| APG APi Group Corporation | $40.48 | $37.37 | -7.7% | Fairly valued |
| MTZ MasTec, Inc. | $215.93 | $233.00 | +7.9% | Fairly valued |
| TTEK Tetra Tech, Inc. | $33.12 | $35.07 | +5.9% | Fairly valued |
| DY Dycom Industries, Inc. | $273.75 | $318.30 | +16.3% | Undervalued |
| EME EMCOR Group, Inc. | $786.61 | $836.84 | +6.4% | Fairly valued |
| FER.MC Ferrovial SE | $47.47 | $41.44 | -12.7% | Fairly valued |
| FLR Fluor Corporation | $49.90 | $58.68 | +17.6% | Undervalued |
All engineering & construction stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does STRL report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Sterling Infrastructure's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 8.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How STRL moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 11.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 3 Aug 2026 | -9.2% |
| 4 May 2026 | +51.3% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | -5.7% |
| 3 Nov 2025 | +1.2% |
| 4 Aug 2025 | +12.7% |
| 5 May 2025 | +66.5% |
| 25 Feb 2025 | +12.4% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | +10.4% |
Sterling Infrastructure at a glance
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. operates across three distinct business segments: transportation, e-infrastructure, and building solutions.
- Market value
- $15.7B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Engineering & Construction
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +63.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 3.31
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Sterling Infrastructure on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for STRL was $556.89. As of 30 Sep 2026 it is $553.29, a change of -0.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Sterling Infrastructure's valuation
Is Sterling Infrastructure stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, STRL reads as Fairly valued as of 30 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $553.29 a share against a last close of $533.42, a gap of +3.7%.
What is STRL's fair value?
$553.29 a share as of 30 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $391.03 to $773.50.
What price range does the model give STRL?
$464.20 to $674.64 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Sterling Infrastructure report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has STRL moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 11.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +66.5% around the report of 5 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for STRL is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.