NYSE: TSN · Agricultural Farm Products
Tyson Foods (TSN) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Tyson Foods (TSN) at $56.01 a share. The stock last closed at $51.89, which puts the model's fair value 7.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Tyson Foods, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Tyson Foods, Inc. operates as a prominent global food producer, encompassing a broad range of activities across four core divisions: Beef, Pork, Chicken, and Prepared Foods.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 gave a fair value of $56.01 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $58.17, so the fair value moved -3.7%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $46.99 to $68.29, built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score is 53 out of 100, against comparable companies. The model compares it with Bunge Global S.A., Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Cal-Maine Foods, Inc., and The Andersons, Inc. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports show a median size of 4.8%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give TSN?
The calibrated range for TSN over 63 trading days is $46.99 to $68.29. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $33.38 to $86.32. In 56% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does TSN score on business quality?
Tyson Foods's overall quality score is 53 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 38 | 4.0%ROIC | 10.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 73 | 2.02xFCF / net income | 0.73x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 52 | 2.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 0.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 83 | 1.5%Net buybacks / market value | 0.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 34 | 2.79xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.79x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 50 | 2.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.8 pts |
How does TSN compare with similar companies?
The companies in agricultural farm products closest to Tyson Foods in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BG Bunge Global S.A. | $106.72 | $98.12 | -8.1% | Fairly valued |
| ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland Company | $80.45 | $84.15 | +4.6% | Fairly valued |
| CALM Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. | $66.67 | $66.38 | -0.4% | Fairly valued |
| ANDE The Andersons, Inc. | $67.72 | $70.77 | +4.5% | Fairly valued |
| VITL Vital Farms, Inc. | $9.06 | $10.91 | +20.4% | Low evidence grade |
All agricultural farm products stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does TSN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Tyson Foods's next earnings report is scheduled for 9 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 9.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How TSN moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 3 Aug 2026 | +1.3% |
| 4 May 2026 | +7.5% |
| 2 Feb 2026 | -0.9% |
| 10 Nov 2025 | +5.4% |
| 4 Aug 2025 | +4.3% |
| 5 May 2025 | -8.3% |
| 3 Feb 2025 | +0.9% |
| 12 Nov 2024 | +7.6% |
Tyson Foods at a glance
Tyson Foods, Inc. operates as a prominent global food producer, encompassing a broad range of activities across four core divisions: Beef, Pork, Chicken, and Prepared Foods.
- Market value
- $18.1B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Agricultural Farm Products
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $55.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +3.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- -0.08
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Tyson Foods on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for TSN was $58.17. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $56.01, a change of -3.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Tyson Foods's valuation
Is Tyson Foods stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, TSN reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $56.01 a share against a last close of $51.89, a gap of +7.9%.
What is TSN's fair value?
$56.01 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $33.38 to $86.32.
What price range does the model give TSN?
$46.99 to $68.29 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Tyson Foods report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 9 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has TSN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was -8.3% around the report of 5 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for TSN is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.