NASDAQ: VITL · Agricultural Farm Products
Vital Farms (VITL) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Vital Farms (VITL) at $10.91 a share. The stock last closed at $9.06, which puts the model's fair value 20.4% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Vital Farms, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Vital Farms, Inc. is a values-driven food enterprise dedicated to providing ethically sourced, pasture-raised products across the United States. It is in the Consumer Defensive sector, in Agricultural Farm Products.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $10.91 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave $12.21, so the fair value moved -10.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $9.15 to $13.30, built from the fair value. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The overall quality score is 34 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with The Andersons, Inc. (ANDE), Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM), Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN), Bunge Global S.A. (BG), and Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports had a median size, ignoring direction, of 12.9%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give VITL?
The calibrated range for VITL over 63 trading days is $9.15 to $13.30. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 15 to 30% above price, the calibrated range has held the price 50% of the time over 63 trading days, and 47% ended below it; the typical move was +4.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $6.70 to $16.46. In 57% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does VITL score on business quality?
Vital Farms's overall quality score is 34 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 14 | 0.1%ROIC | 5.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 17 | -808.50xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 65 | 25.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 26.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 60 | 8.2%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 43 | 2.73xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.47x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 36 | 3.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.6 pts |
How does VITL compare with similar companies?
The companies in agricultural farm products closest to Vital Farms in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANDE The Andersons, Inc. | $67.72 | $70.77 | +4.5% | Fairly valued |
| CALM Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. | $66.67 | $66.38 | -0.4% | Fairly valued |
| TSN Tyson Foods, Inc. | $51.89 | $56.01 | +7.9% | Fairly valued |
| BG Bunge Global S.A. | $106.72 | $98.12 | -8.1% | Fairly valued |
| ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland Company | $80.45 | $84.15 | +4.6% | Fairly valued |
All agricultural farm products stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does VITL report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Vital Farms's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How VITL moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 12.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | 0.0% |
| 7 May 2026 | -25.5% |
| 26 Feb 2026 | -14.9% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | +10.8% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | +21.9% |
| 8 May 2025 | +7.2% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | -2.3% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | -16.2% |
Vital Farms at a glance
Vital Farms, Inc. is a values-driven food enterprise dedicated to providing ethically sourced, pasture-raised products across the United States.
- Market value
- $426M
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Agricultural Farm Products
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $810M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +1.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- -0.36
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Vital Farms on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the revenue analysts expect next year (forward EV/Sales), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for VITL was $12.21. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $10.91, a change of -10.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Vital Farms's valuation
Is Vital Farms stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts VITL's fair value at $10.91 a share against a last close of $9.06, as of 26 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is VITL's fair value?
$10.91 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $6.70 to $16.46.
What price range does the model give VITL?
$9.15 to $13.30 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Vital Farms report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has VITL moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 12.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was -25.5% around the report of 7 May 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for VITL is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.