NYSE: UNM · Life Insurance
Unum Group (UNM) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Unum Group (UNM) at $86.57 a share. The stock last closed at $73.95, which puts the model's fair value 17.1% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Unum Group.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $83.65 to $86.57 (+3.5%). The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method.
What the model makes of itThe price of $73.95 is 17.1% below it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextNext report on 2 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 9% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give UNM?
The calibrated range for UNM over 63 trading days is $67.60 to $82.58. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that UNM's own options imply (30% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $68.11 to $108.08. In 43% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Unum Group, along with its various subsidiaries, specialises in delivering financial protection benefits. It operates primarily across the United States, the United Kingdom and Poland.
Faircurve's model put the fair value of Unum Group (UNM) at $86.57 a share on 31 Oct 2026. The figure is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $83.65, so the fair value moved +3.5%. In the model's own words, it does not yet explain moves on this valuation method. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $68.21 to $83.75. It is built around the price, using the volatility the stock's own options imply, and calibrated weekly against realised prices from 6,661 past valuations. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model compares Unum Group with Prudential Financial, Inc. (PRU) and MetLife, Inc. (MET), each of which has a fair value of its own on the site. Six other comparable companies have no verdict on this date: Jackson Financial Inc. (JXN), Voya Financial, Inc. (VOYA), Primerica, Inc. (PRI), Lincoln National Corporation (LNC), CNO Financial Group, Inc. (CNO) and Aflac Incorporated (AFL).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does UNM report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Unum Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 5.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. UNM's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 8.7% over one month.
On 4 Nov 2026 UNM moved 17.8% in one session, against the 5.7% a day that options had priced: 3.1 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across UNM's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.8%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in UNM
How does UNM compare with similar companies?
The companies in life insurance closest to Unum Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JXN Jackson Financial Inc. | $132.73 | $209.80 | +58.1% | Low evidence grade |
| VOYA Voya Financial, Inc. | $98.40 | $97.54 | -0.9% | Low evidence grade |
| PRI Primerica, Inc. | $288.96 | $276.88 | -4.2% | Low evidence grade |
| LNC Lincoln National Corporation | $39.16 | $117.88 | +201.0% | Gap wider than 60% |
| CNO CNO Financial Group, Inc. | $56.43 | $50.35 | -10.8% | Low evidence grade |
| PRU Prudential Financial, Inc. | $122.46 | $143.66 | +17.3% | Undervalued |
| AFL Aflac Incorporated | $126.24 | $101.81 | -19.4% | Low evidence grade |
| MET MetLife, Inc. | $99.75 | $91.98 | -7.8% | Fairly valued |
Unum Group at a glance
Unum Group, along with its various subsidiaries, specializes in delivering financial protection benefits, primarily operating across the United States, the United Kingdom, and Poland.
- Market value
- $14.4B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Life Insurance
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -9.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- 0.30
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Unum Group on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for UNM was $83.65. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $86.57, a change of +3.5%. The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Unum Group's valuation
Is Unum Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts UNM's fair value at $86.57 a share against a last close of $73.95, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is UNM's fair value?
$86.57 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $68.11 to $108.08.
What price range does the model give UNM?
$67.60 to $82.58 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Unum Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has UNM moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was -17.8% around the report of 3 Nov 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for UNM is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on UNM
The model holds no idea open on UNM today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on UNM with their outcomes. A free account is enough.