NYSE: CON · Medical Care Facilities
Concentra Group Holdings Parent (CON) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Concentra Group Holdings Parent (CON) at $38.11 a share. The stock last closed at $35.65, which puts the model's fair value 6.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. is a U.S.-based provider of occupational health solutions.
Faircurve's model valued Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. at $38.11 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This was a move of -0.5% from the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $38.29. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $31.97 to $46.47, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade for this valuation was Medium.
The company's overall quality score was 70 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its earnings quality scored 100, capital discipline 77, stability 88, profitability 66, growth quality 57, and balance sheet 22. Faircurve's model compares it with National HealthCare Corporation, Hims & Hers Health, Inc., Addus HomeCare Corporation, and The Ensign Group, Inc. The stock's median move around its last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 2.2%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CON?
The calibrated range for CON over 63 trading days is $31.97 to $46.47. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $27.92 to $50.43. In 59% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CON score on business quality?
Concentra Group Holdings Parent's overall quality score is 70 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 66 | 11.6%ROIC | 8.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | 1.76xFCF / net income | 1.08x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 57 | 13.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 17.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 77 | 0.6%Net buybacks / market value | 0.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 22 | 4.32xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.39x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 88 | 0.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.0 pts |
How does CON compare with similar companies?
The companies in medical care facilities closest to Concentra Group Holdings Parent in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHC National HealthCare Corporation | $227.66 | $263.84 | +15.9% | Undervalued |
| OPCH Option Care Health, Inc. | $22.64 | $25.11 | +10.9% | Low evidence grade |
| HIMS Hims & Hers Health, Inc. | $29.00 | $29.24 | +0.8% | Fairly valued |
| CHE Chemed Corporation | $507.50 | $507.32 | 0.0% | Low evidence grade |
| ACHC Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. | $28.06 | $34.20 | +21.9% | Low evidence grade |
| MD Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. | $25.97 | $30.52 | +17.5% | Low evidence grade |
| ADUS Addus HomeCare Corporation | $111.27 | $126.76 | +13.9% | Fairly valued |
| ENSG The Ensign Group, Inc. | $171.78 | $148.78 | -13.4% | Fairly valued |
All medical care facilities stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does CON report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Concentra Group Holdings Parent's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How CON moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | +10.7% |
| 7 May 2026 | +5.9% |
| 28 Jan 2026 | -0.3% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | +1.0% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | +8.4% |
| 7 May 2025 | -0.8% |
| 3 Mar 2025 | -0.6% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | -3.4% |
Concentra Group Holdings Parent at a glance
Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. is a U.S.-based provider of occupational health solutions.
- Market value
- $4.5B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical Care Facilities
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +8.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 0.34
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Concentra Group Holdings Parent on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CON was $38.29. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $38.11, a change of -0.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Concentra Group Holdings Parent's valuation
Is Concentra Group Holdings Parent stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CON reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $38.11 a share against a last close of $35.65, a gap of +6.9%.
What is CON's fair value?
$38.11 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $27.92 to $50.43.
What price range does the model give CON?
$31.97 to $46.47 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Concentra Group Holdings Parent report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CON moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +10.7% around the report of 6 Aug 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CON is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.