NASDAQ: ADI · Semiconductors
Analog Devices (ADI) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Analog Devices (ADI) at $425.30 a share. The stock last closed at $417.15, which puts the model's fair value 2.0% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Analog Devices, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) is a technology leader specializing in the conception, production, validation, and global marketing of integrated circuits (ICs), software solutions, and advanced subsystems.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $425.30 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +1.0% from the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $421.05. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $378.98 to $493.35, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is High.
The business has an overall quality score of 60 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its quality factors include Profitability at 56 and Growth quality at 83. Faircurve's model compares it with QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM), KLA Corporation (KLAC), Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN), Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT), Lam Research Corporation (LRCX), and Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports range from -7.3% to +10.7%, with a median size of 6.2% ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ADI?
The calibrated range for ADI over 63 trading days is $378.98 to $493.35. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that ADI's own options imply (37% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $317.64 to $564.60. In 59% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ADI score on business quality?
Analog Devices's overall quality score is 60 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 56 | 10.7%ROIC | 7.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 48 | 1.19xFCF / net income | 1.08x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 83 | 16.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 13.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 70 | 1.6%Net buybacks / market value | 0.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 52 | 1.06xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.52x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 50 | 4.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.8 pts |
How does ADI compare with similar companies?
The companies in semiconductors closest to Analog Devices in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QCOM QUALCOMM Incorporated | $184.87 | $254.02 | +37.4% | Undervalued |
| MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. | $272.29 | $235.42 | -13.5% | Low evidence grade |
| KLAC KLA Corporation | $206.89 | $190.87 | -7.7% | Fairly valued |
| TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated | $293.80 | $286.42 | -2.5% | Fairly valued |
| ARM Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares | $307.49 | $270.80 | -11.9% | Data under review |
| AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. | $540.04 | $591.13 | +9.5% | Fairly valued |
| LRCX Lam Research Corporation | $347.49 | $339.37 | -2.3% | Fairly valued |
| MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. | $1,439.73 | $1,155.65 | -19.7% | Overvalued |
When does ADI report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. ADI's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 10.7% over one month.
How ADI moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2026 | -1.7% |
| 20 May 2026 | -7.3% |
| 18 Feb 2026 | +2.3% |
| 25 Nov 2025 | +7.7% |
| 20 Aug 2025 | +7.2% |
| 22 May 2025 | -5.3% |
| 19 Feb 2025 | +10.7% |
| 26 Nov 2024 | -2.9% |
Analog Devices at a glance
Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) is a technology leader specializing in the conception, production, validation, and global marketing of integrated circuits (ICs), software solutions, and advanced subsystems.
- Market value
- $191.7B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $18.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +37.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 19
- Beta to the US market
- 1.67
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Analog Devices on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ADI was $421.05. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $425.30, a change of +1.0%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Analog Devices's valuation
Is Analog Devices stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ADI reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $425.30 a share against a last close of $417.15, a gap of +2.0%.
What is ADI's fair value?
$425.30 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $317.64 to $564.60.
What price range does the model give ADI?
$378.98 to $493.35 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
How much has ADI moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +10.7% around the report of 19 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ADI is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.