NYSE: AEE · Regulated Electric
Ameren (AEE) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Ameren (AEE) at $100.86 a share. The stock last closed at $99.94, which puts the model's fair value 0.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Ameren Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Ameren Corporation operates as a utility holding company across the United States.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model valued Ameren Corporation at $100.86 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +0.9% since the previous run, which gave $100.00. The calibrated range is $84.15 to $122.27, built from the fair value as there is no live options data. This range held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model graded the evidence as High.
The business scored 61 out of 100 on overall quality against comparable companies. Its profitability score was 62, with ROIC at 5.6%, and its growth quality score was 74, with trailing revenue growth at 15.4%. The model compared it with DTE Energy Company, FirstEnergy Corp., CenterPoint Energy, Inc., PPL Corporation, PG&E Corporation, and WEC Energy Group, Inc. The stock moved a median of 1.0% around its last eight earnings reports.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give AEE?
The calibrated range for AEE over 63 trading days is $84.15 to $122.27. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $73.20 to $131.19. In 51% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does AEE score on business quality?
Ameren's overall quality score is 61 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 62 | 5.6%ROIC | 5.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 51 | -0.90xFCF / net income | -0.68x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 74 | 15.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 11.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 23 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 63 | 5.21xNet debt / EBITDA | 5.50x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 86 | 2.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.7 pts |
How does AEE compare with similar companies?
The companies in regulated electric closest to Ameren in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DTE DTE Energy Company | $124.45 | $123.21 | -1.0% | Fairly valued |
| FE FirstEnergy Corp. | $43.34 | $49.69 | +14.7% | Fairly valued |
| CNP CenterPoint Energy, Inc. | $37.79 | $34.37 | -9.1% | Fairly valued |
| PPL PPL Corporation | $32.80 | $34.63 | +5.6% | Fairly valued |
| ES Eversource Energy | $64.50 | $82.96 | +28.6% | Low evidence grade |
| PCG PG&E Corporation | $12.32 | $15.73 | +27.7% | Undervalued |
| WEC WEC Energy Group, Inc. | $101.59 | $96.93 | -4.6% | Fairly valued |
| PEG Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated | $68.07 | $67.63 | -0.6% | Low evidence grade |
When does AEE report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Ameren's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 30 Sep 2026 imply a move of about 7.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 50 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How AEE moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | -0.3% |
| 5 May 2026 | -2.5% |
| 11 Feb 2026 | +3.4% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | +0.1% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | +2.3% |
| 1 May 2025 | +0.2% |
| 13 Feb 2025 | +0.8% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | -1.3% |
Ameren at a glance
Operating across the United States, Ameren Corporation functions as a utility holding company.
- Market value
- $27.7B
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Regulated Electric
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $9.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +2.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- -0.21
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Ameren on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for AEE was $100.00. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $100.86, a change of +0.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Ameren's valuation
Is Ameren stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, AEE reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $100.86 a share against a last close of $99.94, a gap of +0.9%.
What is AEE's fair value?
$100.86 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $73.20 to $131.19.
What price range does the model give AEE?
$84.15 to $122.27 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Ameren report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AEE moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +3.4% around the report of 11 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AEE is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.