NYSE: WEC · Regulated Electric
WEC Energy Group (WEC) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values WEC Energy Group (WEC) at $96.93 a share. The stock last closed at $101.59, which puts the model's fair value 4.6% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. WEC Energy Group, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
WEC Energy Group, Inc. is a major energy provider operating across the United States, delivering regulated natural gas and electricity, as well as both regulated and non-regulated renewable energy services.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $96.93 a share, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The fair value moved +0.4% from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $96.50. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $80.87 to $117.51, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High.
The overall quality score is 67 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares WEC Energy Group, Inc. with PG&E Corporation (PCG), Consolidated Edison, Inc. (ED), Ameren Corporation (AEE), Exelon Corporation (EXC), DTE Energy Company (DTE), FirstEnergy Corp. (FE), and CenterPoint Energy, Inc. (CNP). Around the last 8 earnings reports, the median move, ignoring direction, was 1.3%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give WEC?
The calibrated range for WEC over 63 trading days is $80.87 to $117.51. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $71.16 to $125.18. In 44% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does WEC score on business quality?
WEC Energy Group's overall quality score is 67 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 97 | 6.1%ROIC | 5.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 55 | -0.83xFCF / net income | -1.06x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 61 | 14.0%Revenue growth, trailing | 12.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 42 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 52 | 5.58xNet debt / EBITDA | 5.78x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 58 | 2.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.0 pts |
How does WEC compare with similar companies?
The companies in regulated electric closest to WEC Energy Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PCG PG&E Corporation | $12.32 | $15.73 | +27.7% | Undervalued |
| PEG Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated | $68.07 | $67.63 | -0.6% | Low evidence grade |
| ED Consolidated Edison, Inc. | $103.39 | $103.72 | +0.3% | Fairly valued |
| AEE Ameren Corporation | $99.94 | $100.86 | +0.9% | Fairly valued |
| EXC Exelon Corporation | $40.73 | $48.00 | +17.8% | Undervalued |
| DTE DTE Energy Company | $124.45 | $123.21 | -1.0% | Fairly valued |
| FE FirstEnergy Corp. | $43.34 | $49.69 | +14.7% | Fairly valued |
| CNP CenterPoint Energy, Inc. | $37.79 | $34.37 | -9.1% | Fairly valued |
When does WEC report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
WEC Energy Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How WEC moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.3%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | -3.1% |
| 5 May 2026 | -2.1% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | -1.7% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | -2.5% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | +0.4% |
| 6 May 2025 | +0.8% |
| 4 Feb 2025 | +0.4% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | -0.5% |
WEC Energy Group at a glance
WEC Energy Group, Inc. is a major energy provider operating across the United States, delivering regulated natural gas and electricity, as well as both regulated and non-regulated renewable energy services.
- Market value
- $33.1B
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Regulated Electric
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $10.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +3.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- -0.19
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices WEC Energy Group on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for WEC was $96.50. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $96.93, a change of +0.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about WEC Energy Group's valuation
Is WEC Energy Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, WEC reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $96.93 a share against a last close of $101.59, a gap of -4.6%.
What is WEC's fair value?
$96.93 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $71.16 to $125.18.
What price range does the model give WEC?
$80.87 to $117.51 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does WEC Energy Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has WEC moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was -3.1% around the report of 29 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for WEC is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.