NYSE: NEU · Specialty Chemicals
NewMarket (NEU) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values NewMarket (NEU) at $747.49 a share. The stock last closed at $749.72, which puts the model's fair value 0.3% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. NewMarket Corporation.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices and the next earnings date. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $828.76 to $747.49 (-9.8%). The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $749.72 is level with it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 5 Nov 2026. Options expiring after the report price a move of about 5% either way. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give NEU?
The calibrated range for NEU over 63 trading days is $682.77 to $841.03. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that NEU's own options imply (31% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $589.02 to $927.02. In 43% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
NewMarket Corporation (NEU) is a specialty chemicals company in the Basic Materials sector. It operates mainly through its subsidiaries and specialises in the creation and supply of petroleum additives.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $747.49 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $828.76, so the fair value moved -9.8%. The model's own explanation is that the stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $682.77 to $841.03. It is built from the volatility the stock's own options imply and calibrated weekly against realised prices, using 6,661 past valuations. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence as Medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
On the model's overall quality score, the company scores 65 out of 100, a composite of six quality factors measured against comparable companies. Profitability stands out at 94, with ROIC of 15.8% against a peer median of 7.7%. Growth quality is 24, with trailing revenue growth of -2.2% against a peer median of -5.2%. Stability is 37, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 3.5 pts against a peer median of 1.0 pts. The model compares the company with Eastman Chemical Company (EMN), Element Solutions Inc (ESI), Westlake Corporation (WLK), Balchem Corp (BCPC), Solstice Advanced Materials Inc. (SOLS), Sensient Technologies Corporation (SXT), Albemarle Corporation (ALB) and RPM International Inc. (RPM). Each has a fair value of its own on the site.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does NEU report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
NewMarket's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 5.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 15 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. NEU's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 9.1% over one month.
On 29 Oct 2026 NEU moved 8.0% in one session, against the 2.0% a day that options had priced: 4.0 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across NEU's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.2%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in NEU
How does NEU score on business quality?
NewMarket's overall quality score is 65 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 94 | 15.8%ROIC | 7.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 67 | 0.89xFCF / net income | 0.75x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 24 | -2.2%Revenue growth, trailing | -5.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 76 | 1.8%Net buybacks / market value | 1.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 67 | 1.12xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.77x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 37 | 3.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.0 pts |
How does NEU compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty chemicals closest to NewMarket in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMN Eastman Chemical Company | $65.34 | $90.30 | +38.2% | Undervalued |
| ESI Element Solutions Inc | $35.07 | $29.91 | -14.7% | Fairly valued |
| WLK Westlake Corporation | $68.47 | $62.00 | -9.4% | Fairly valued |
| BCPC Balchem Corp | $175.51 | $158.63 | -9.6% | Fairly valued |
| SOLS Solstice Advanced Materials Inc. | $61.74 | $60.17 | -2.5% | Fairly valued |
| SXT Sensient Technologies Corporation | $116.87 | $109.40 | -6.4% | Fairly valued |
| ALB Albemarle Corporation | $90.19 | $108.34 | +20.1% | Undervalued |
| RPM RPM International Inc. | $105.35 | $106.09 | +0.7% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for NEU, the peer-implied price, is $524.10 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
NewMarket at a glance
NewMarket Corporation, through its various subsidiaries, operates primarily in the specialty chemicals sector, specializing in the creation and supply of petroleum additives.
- Market value
- $7.2B
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Specialty Chemicals
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -9.4%
- Beta to the US market
- 0.80
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. NEU was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices NewMarket on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the revenue analysts expect next year (forward EV/Sales), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for NEU was $828.76. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $747.49, a change of -9.8%. The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about NewMarket's valuation
Is NewMarket stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, NEU reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $747.49 a share against a last close of $749.72, a gap of -0.3%.
What is NEU's fair value?
$747.49 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $589.02 to $927.02.
What price range does the model give NEU?
$682.77 to $841.03 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does NewMarket report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has NEU moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was -17.0% around the report of 11 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for NEU is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on NEU
The model holds no idea open on NEU today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on NEU with their outcomes. A free account is enough.