NYSE: EMN · Specialty Chemicals
Eastman Chemical (EMN) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Eastman Chemical (EMN) at $90.30 a share. The stock last closed at $65.71, which puts the model's fair value 37.4% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Eastman Chemical Company.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $73.07 to $90.30 (+23.6%). Net debt fell on the latest balance sheet: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $65.71 is 37.4% below it: Undervalued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 4 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 10% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give EMN?
The calibrated range for EMN over 63 trading days is $59.41 to $74.37. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that EMN's own options imply (34% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $76.33 to $106.03. In 95% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Eastman Chemical Company (EMN) is a Basic Materials company in Specialty Chemicals. It functions as a worldwide provider of specialized materials.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $90.30 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $73.07, so the fair value moved +23.6%. The model's reason: Net debt fell on the latest balance sheet: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $61.13 to $76.52, built from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Across 6,661 past valuations, ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High, based on input completeness, comparable company agreement and outcome spread. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Eastman scores 57 out of 100 on quality against comparable companies, the model's composite of six quality factors. Profitability is the highest, at 89, with ROIC of 16.5% against a peer median of 10.3%. Earnings quality is the lowest, at 19, with FCF / net income of 0.83x against a peer median of 1.19x. Balance sheet scores 76, with Net debt / EBITDA of -0.61x against a peer median of 2.61x. The model compares Eastman with NewMarket Corporation (NEU), Element Solutions Inc (ESI), Westlake Corporation (WLK), Solstice Advanced Materials Inc. (SOLS), Balchem Corp (BCPC), Albemarle Corporation (ALB), Sensient Technologies Corporation (SXT) and RPM International Inc. (RPM).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does EMN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Eastman Chemical's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
On 5 Nov 2026, EMN's 30 day implied volatility worked out to a move of about 9.8% over one month, in either direction. That is a size, not a direction.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across EMN's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.0%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in EMN
How does EMN score on business quality?
Eastman Chemical's overall quality score is 57 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 89 | 16.5%ROIC | 10.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 19 | 0.83xFCF / net income | 1.19x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 37 | -6.7%Revenue growth, trailing | -3.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 39 | 0.7%Net buybacks / market value | 1.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 76 | -0.61xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.61x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 78 | 1.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.3 pts |
How does EMN compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty chemicals closest to Eastman Chemical in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEU NewMarket Corporation | $693.08 | $747.49 | +7.9% | Fairly valued |
| ESI Element Solutions Inc | $30.76 | $29.91 | -2.8% | Fairly valued |
| WLK Westlake Corporation | $66.28 | $62.00 | -6.5% | Fairly valued |
| SOLS Solstice Advanced Materials Inc. | $55.04 | $60.17 | +9.3% | Fairly valued |
| BCPC Balchem Corp | $179.71 | $158.63 | -11.7% | Fairly valued |
| ALB Albemarle Corporation | $98.37 | $113.55 | +15.4% | Undervalued |
| SXT Sensient Technologies Corporation | $119.75 | $109.40 | -8.6% | Fairly valued |
| RPM RPM International Inc. | $105.45 | $106.09 | +0.6% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for EMN, the peer-implied price, is $156.51 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Eastman Chemical at a glance
Eastman Chemical Company functions as a worldwide provider of specialized materials.
- Market value
- $7.6B
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Specialty Chemicals
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $9.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +5.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 9
- Beta to the US market
- 0.69
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. EMN was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Eastman Chemical on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for EMN was $73.07. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $90.30, a change of +23.6%. Net debt fell on the latest balance sheet: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Eastman Chemical's valuation
Is Eastman Chemical stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, EMN reads as Undervalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $90.30 a share against a last close of $65.71, a gap of +37.4%.
What is EMN's fair value?
$90.30 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $76.33 to $106.03.
What price range does the model give EMN?
$59.41 to $74.37 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Eastman Chemical report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has EMN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was -19.9% around the report of 31 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for EMN is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on EMN
The model holds no idea open on EMN today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on EMN with their outcomes. A free account is enough.