NYSE: APO · Asset Management
Apollo Global Management (APO) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Apollo Global Management (APO) at $141.41 a share. The stock last closed at $114.02, which puts the model's fair value 24.0% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Apollo Global Management, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Apollo Global Management, Inc. operates as a prominent investment management firm. It concentrates its efforts across credit, private equity, and real estate asset classes.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $141.41 a share on 3 Oct 2026. This fair value moved -6.5% since the previous run, which gave $151.20 on 26 Sep 2026. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $102.48 to $136.07, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is High.
The business has an overall quality score of 71 out of 100, against comparable companies Ameriprise Financial, Inc., Ares Management Corporation, Blackstone Inc., and BlackRock, Inc. Its scores include Profitability 100, Earnings quality 73, Growth quality 47, Capital discipline 75, Balance sheet 96, and Stability 0. The stock's median move around its last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 2.3%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give APO?
The calibrated range for APO over 63 trading days is $102.48 to $136.07. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that APO's own options imply (40% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $120.65 to $165.79. In 88% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does APO score on business quality?
Apollo Global Management's overall quality score is 71 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 19.9%ROIC | 7.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 73 | 4.26xFCF / net income | 1.06x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 47 | 22.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 19.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 75 | 2.0%Net buybacks / market value | 1.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 96 | -1.38xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.43x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 27.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 6.8 pts |
How does APO compare with similar companies?
The companies in asset management closest to Apollo Global Management in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KKR KKR & Co. Inc. | $90.29 | $69.99 | -22.5% | Low evidence grade |
| STT State Street Corporation | $175.96 | $168.25 | -4.4% | Low evidence grade |
| AMP Ameriprise Financial, Inc. | $490.91 | $669.49 | +36.4% | Undervalued |
| ARES Ares Management Corporation | $117.55 | $86.00 | -26.8% | Overvalued |
| BX Blackstone Inc. | $111.75 | $93.95 | -15.9% | Overvalued |
| NTRS Northern Trust Corporation | $171.40 | $140.94 | -17.8% | Low evidence grade |
| RJF Raymond James Financial, Inc. | $158.21 | $157.79 | -0.3% | Low evidence grade |
| BLK BlackRock, Inc. | $1,059.63 | $1,067.59 | +0.8% | Fairly valued |
When does APO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Apollo Global Management's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. APO's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 11.6% over one month.
How APO moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.3%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | +0.2% |
| 6 May 2026 | -1.9% |
| 9 Feb 2026 | -0.5% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | +7.9% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | +2.7% |
| 2 May 2025 | -2.8% |
| 4 Feb 2025 | -0.8% |
| 5 Nov 2024 | +17.4% |
Apollo Global Management at a glance
Apollo Global Management, Inc. operates as a prominent investment management firm, primarily concentrating its efforts across credit, private equity, and real estate asset classes.
- Market value
- $65.7B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Asset Management
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $26.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -28.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- 1.30
- First valued by Faircurve
- 4 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Apollo Global Management on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for APO was $151.20. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $141.41, a change of -6.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Apollo Global Management's valuation
Is Apollo Global Management stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, APO reads as Undervalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $141.41 a share against a last close of $114.02, a gap of +24.0%.
What is APO's fair value?
$141.41 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $120.65 to $165.79.
What price range does the model give APO?
$102.48 to $136.07 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Apollo Global Management report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has APO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was +17.4% around the report of 5 Nov 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for APO is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.