NYSE: BX · Asset Management
Blackstone (BX) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Blackstone (BX) at $98.40 a share. The stock last closed at $111.75, which puts the model's fair value 11.9% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Blackstone Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Blackstone Inc. operates as a prominent alternative asset manager, specializing in a broad spectrum of investment strategies.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $98.40 a share for Blackstone Inc. on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $102.00, meaning the fair value moved -3.5%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $100.31 to $134.96, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
Blackstone Inc. has an overall quality score of 67 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability score is 100, with ROIC at 20.8% against a peer median of 7.6%. The model compares Blackstone Inc. with BlackRock, Inc., Apollo Global Management, Inc., Ameriprise Financial, Inc., and Ares Management Corporation. The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports include +5.8% on 23 Jul 2026 and -6.2% on 23 Apr 2026, with a median size of 5.1% ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give BX?
The calibrated range for BX over 63 trading days is $100.31 to $134.96. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that BX's own options imply (42% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $65.97 to $142.54. In 34% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does BX score on business quality?
Blackstone's overall quality score is 67 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 20.8%ROIC | 7.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 48 | 1.25xFCF / net income | 1.54x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 56 | 21.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 19.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 44 | 0.2%Net buybacks / market value | 1.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 67 | 1.37xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.40x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 50 | 7.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 7.2 pts |
How does BX compare with similar companies?
The companies in asset management closest to Blackstone in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLK BlackRock, Inc. | $1,059.63 | $1,067.59 | +0.8% | Fairly valued |
| KKR KKR & Co. Inc. | $90.29 | $70.76 | -21.6% | Low evidence grade |
| APO Apollo Global Management, Inc. | $114.02 | $151.20 | +32.6% | Undervalued |
| STT State Street Corporation | $175.96 | $168.83 | -4.1% | Low evidence grade |
| AMP Ameriprise Financial, Inc. | $490.91 | $672.41 | +37.0% | Undervalued |
| ARES Ares Management Corporation | $117.55 | $86.00 | -26.8% | Overvalued |
| NTRS Northern Trust Corporation | $171.40 | $143.65 | -16.2% | Low evidence grade |
| RJF Raymond James Financial, Inc. | $158.21 | $170.99 | +8.1% | Low evidence grade |
When does BX report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Blackstone's next earnings report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. BX's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 12.1% over one month.
How BX moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2026 | +5.8% |
| 23 Apr 2026 | -6.2% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | -3.0% |
| 23 Oct 2025 | -4.4% |
| 24 Jul 2025 | +3.6% |
| 17 Apr 2025 | -7.1% |
| 30 Jan 2025 | -4.5% |
| 17 Oct 2024 | +7.9% |
Blackstone at a glance
Blackstone Inc. operates as a prominent alternative asset manager, specializing in a broad spectrum of investment strategies.
- Market value
- $143.1B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Asset Management
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $17.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +4.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 15
- Beta to the US market
- 1.36
- First valued by Faircurve
- 4 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Blackstone on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for BX was $102.00. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $98.40, a change of -3.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Blackstone's valuation
Is Blackstone stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, BX reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $98.40 a share against a last close of $111.75, a gap of -11.9%.
What is BX's fair value?
$98.40 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $65.97 to $142.54.
What price range does the model give BX?
$100.31 to $134.96 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Blackstone report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has BX moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was +7.9% around the report of 17 Oct 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for BX is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.