NYSE: STT · Asset Management
State Street (STT) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values State Street (STT) at $168.83 a share. The stock last closed at $175.96, which puts the model's fair value 4.1% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. State Street Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
State Street Corporation delivers financial products and specialised services to institutional investors worldwide. It is a well-established global financial services firm.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $168.83 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave $170.19, so the fair value moved -0.8%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $141.64 to $205.86, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The model compares State Street Corporation with Ameriprise Financial, Inc., Ares Management Corporation, Apollo Global Management, Inc., and T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. The stock moved -2.2% around its 16 Jul 2026 earnings report, +5.8% on 17 Apr 2026, -8.1% on 16 Jan 2026, and +2.1% on 17 Oct 2025. The median move, ignoring direction, around the last 8 earnings reports was 2.2%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give STT?
The calibrated range for STT over 63 trading days is $141.64 to $205.86. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $144.71 to $194.71. In 34% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does STT compare with similar companies?
The companies in asset management closest to State Street in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMP Ameriprise Financial, Inc. | $490.91 | $672.41 | +37.0% | Undervalued |
| ARES Ares Management Corporation | $117.55 | $86.00 | -26.8% | Overvalued |
| APO Apollo Global Management, Inc. | $114.02 | $151.20 | +32.6% | Undervalued |
| NTRS Northern Trust Corporation | $171.40 | $143.65 | -16.2% | Low evidence grade |
| RJF Raymond James Financial, Inc. | $158.21 | $170.99 | +8.1% | Low evidence grade |
| KKR KKR & Co. Inc. | $90.29 | $70.76 | -21.6% | Low evidence grade |
| PFG Principal Financial Group, Inc. | $111.96 | $123.41 | +10.2% | Low evidence grade |
| TROW T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. | $104.62 | $128.28 | +22.6% | Undervalued |
When does STT report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
State Street's next earnings report is scheduled for 14 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How STT moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 16 Jul 2026 | -2.2% |
| 17 Apr 2026 | +5.8% |
| 16 Jan 2026 | -8.1% |
| 17 Oct 2025 | +2.1% |
| 15 Jul 2025 | -4.5% |
| 17 Apr 2025 | +1.3% |
| 17 Jan 2025 | -1.5% |
| 15 Oct 2024 | +2.1% |
State Street at a glance
State Street Corporation (STT) is a well-established global financial services firm that delivers a wide array of financial products and specialized services to institutional investors worldwide.
- Market value
- $50.2B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Asset Management
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -29.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- 1.31
- First valued by Faircurve
- 4 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices State Street on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for STT was $170.19. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $168.83, a change of -0.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about State Street's valuation
Is State Street stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts STT's fair value at $168.83 a share against a last close of $175.96, as of 26 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is STT's fair value?
$168.83 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $144.71 to $194.71.
What price range does the model give STT?
$141.64 to $205.86 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does State Street report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 14 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has STT moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was -8.1% around the report of 16 Jan 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for STT is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.