NASDAQ: PCTY · Application Software
Paylocity Holding (PCTY) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Paylocity Holding (PCTY) at $176.41 a share. The stock last closed at $169.57, which puts the model's fair value 4.0% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Paylocity Holding Corporation.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $182.77 to $176.41 (-3.5%). The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $169.57 is 4.0% below it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextNo report date on file. Options prices imply a move of about 15% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give PCTY?
The calibrated range for PCTY over 63 trading days is $145.71 to $204.29. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that PCTY's own options imply (51% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $111.80 to $275.91. In 52% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY) is a technology company in application software. It delivers cloud-native software, mainly for human capital management and payroll processing for businesses across the United States.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $176.41 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $182.77, so the fair value moved -3.5%. In the model's own words, the stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $147.97 to $204.16. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The model's overall quality score is 74 out of 100, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Earnings quality is the highest at 92, with free cash flow to net income of 1.66x against a peer median of 1.19x. Stability is the lowest at 37, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 3.7 points against a peer median of 2.7 points. The model compares Paylocity with InterDigital, AppFolio, Commvault, Bentley Systems, Paycom, Duolingo, Lyft and RingCentral.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
The Global Pulse
Faircurve's note after each US session, in your inbox. No account needed.
When does PCTY report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 9.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. PCTY's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 14.7% over one month.
How PCTY moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 3 Nov 2026 | -1.8% |
| 4 Aug 2026 | +5.8% |
| 7 May 2026 | +8.2% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | -6.9% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | +3.3% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | +1.7% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | -1.6% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | +4.9% |
How does PCTY score on business quality?
Paylocity Holding's overall quality score is 74 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 88 | 25.1%ROIC | 27.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 92 | 1.66xFCF / net income | 1.19x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 48 | 11.0%Revenue growth, trailing | 8.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 77 | 4.5%Net buybacks / market value | 2.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 87 | -0.30xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.16x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 37 | 3.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.7 pts |
How does PCTY compare with similar companies?
The companies in application software closest to Paylocity Holding in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IDCC InterDigital, Inc. | $286.53 | $328.39 | +14.6% | Fairly valued |
| APPF AppFolio Inc. | $233.22 | $228.86 | -1.9% | Fairly valued |
| CVLT Commvault Systems, Inc. | $157.62 | $163.57 | +3.8% | Fairly valued |
| BSY Bentley Systems, Incorporated | $44.94 | $37.39 | -16.8% | Overvalued |
| PAYC Paycom Software, Inc. | $250.02 | $278.72 | +11.5% | Fairly valued |
| DUOL Duolingo, Inc. | $157.02 | $126.57 | -19.4% | Overvalued |
| LYFT Lyft, Inc. | $17.84 | $16.59 | -7.0% | Fairly valued |
| RNG RingCentral, Inc. | $74.33 | $91.89 | +23.6% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for PCTY, the peer-implied price, is $209.65 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Paylocity Holding at a glance
Paylocity Holding Corporation delivers a comprehensive suite of cloud-native software solutions, primarily focusing on human capital management (HCM) and payroll processing for businesses and their workforces throughout the United States.
- Market value
- $8.9B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Application Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +6.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- -0.26
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Paylocity Holding on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for PCTY was $182.77. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $176.41, a change of -3.5%. The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Paylocity Holding's valuation
Is Paylocity Holding stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts PCTY's fair value at $176.41 a share against a last close of $169.57, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is PCTY's fair value?
$176.41 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $111.80 to $275.91.
What price range does the model give PCTY?
$145.71 to $204.29 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
How much has PCTY moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was +8.2% around the report of 7 May 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PCTY is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on PCTY
The model holds no idea open on PCTY today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on PCTY with their outcomes. A free account is enough.