NYSE: AWR · Regulated Water
American States Water (AWR) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 2 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values American States Water (AWR) at $83.77 a share. The stock last closed at $82.82, which puts the model's fair value 1.1% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. American States Water Company.
Faircurve Insights · 2 Oct 2026
American States Water Company (AWR) is an enterprise that delivers fundamental water and electricity services to a broad spectrum of clients through its various subsidiary entities. These clients encompass residential, commercial, and industrial consumers.
Faircurve's model, on 2 Oct 2026, found a fair value of $83.77 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $85.38, meaning the fair value moved -1.9%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $70.28 to $102.14, built from the fair value because there is no live options data for the stock, and calibrated weekly against realised prices, 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High.
The business scores an overall quality score of 83 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with California Water Service Group (CWT), H2O America (HTO), Middlesex Water Company (MSEX), Essential Utilities, Inc. (WTRG), and American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK). Around the last 8 earnings reports, the median move, ignoring direction, was 0.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 2 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give AWR?
The calibrated range for AWR over 63 trading days is $70.28 to $102.14. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $66.96 to $102.93. In 54% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does AWR score on business quality?
American States Water's overall quality score is 83 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 8.9%ROIC | 5.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 96 | 0.14xFCF / net income | -0.88x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 75 | 10.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 65 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 84 | 2.97xNet debt / EBITDA | 4.76x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 40 | 2.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.1 pts |
How does AWR compare with similar companies?
The companies in regulated water closest to American States Water in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWT California Water Service Group | $45.96 | $45.92 | -0.1% | Fairly valued |
| HTO H2O America | $60.13 | $54.98 | -8.6% | Fairly valued |
| MSEX Middlesex Water Company | $53.56 | $49.02 | -8.5% | Fairly valued |
| WTRG Essential Utilities, Inc. | $39.38 | $39.44 | +0.2% | Fairly valued |
| AWK American Water Works Company, Inc. | $130.25 | $115.83 | -11.1% | Fairly valued |
When does AWR report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
American States Water's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How AWR moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 0.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | +0.3% |
| 6 May 2026 | +0.8% |
| 18 Feb 2026 | -1.9% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | +0.5% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | +1.9% |
| 7 May 2025 | +3.8% |
| 19 Feb 2025 | +0.5% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | -0.2% |
American States Water at a glance
American States Water Company (AWR) is an enterprise that, through its various subsidiary entities, delivers fundamental water and electricity services to a broad spectrum of clients, encompassing residential, commercial, and industrial consumers across the.
- Market value
- $3.2B
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Regulated Water
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $737M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +8.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- -0.39
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices American States Water on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for AWR was $85.38. As of 2 Oct 2026 it is $83.77, a change of -1.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about American States Water's valuation
Is American States Water stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, AWR reads as Fairly valued as of 2 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $83.77 a share against a last close of $82.82, a gap of +1.1%.
What is AWR's fair value?
$83.77 a share as of 2 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $66.96 to $102.93.
What price range does the model give AWR?
$70.28 to $102.14 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does American States Water report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AWR moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 0.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +3.8% around the report of 7 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AWR is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.