NYSE: WTRG · Regulated Water
Essential Utilities (WTRG) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Essential Utilities (WTRG) at $43.53 a share. The stock last closed at $44.04, which puts the model's fair value 1.2% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Essential Utilities, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the price chart, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $42.87 to $43.53 (+1.5%). The companies the model compares it with now trade on higher multiples: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $44.04 is 1.2% above it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 24 Feb 2027. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give WTRG?
The calibrated range for WTRG over 63 trading days is $35.26 to $52.00. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $29.56 to $60.44. In 50% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Essential Utilities, Inc. is a diversified utility enterprise. Through its operating units, it delivers water, wastewater and natural gas services within the United States.
Faircurve's model put the fair value of Essential Utilities, Inc. (WTRG) at $43.53 a share on 31 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $42.87, so the fair value moved +1.5%. In the model's words, "The companies the model compares it with now trade on higher multiples: most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $35.26 to $52.00. It is built from the fair value, as there is no live options data for the stock. Ranges built this way have held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence Medium. The grade covers input completeness, comparable companies and the spread of outcomes, not whether the fair value is right.
The model's overall quality score for the company is 40 out of 100, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Growth quality stands at 56, with trailing revenue growth of 18.6% against a peer median of 8.4%. Balance sheet scores 10, with net debt to EBITDA of 6.27x against a peer median of 4.87x. The model compares the company with American Water Works Company, Inc., American States Water Company, California Water Service Group, H2O America and Middlesex Water Company, each of which has a fair value of its own on the site.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does WTRG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Essential Utilities's next earnings report is scheduled for 24 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across WTRG's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.8%.
How does WTRG score on business quality?
Essential Utilities's overall quality score is 40 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 44 | 5.5%ROIC | 5.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 40 | -0.88xFCF / net income | -1.32x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 56 | 18.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 8.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 44 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 10 | 6.27xNet debt / EBITDA | 4.87x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 24 | 3.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.4 pts |
How does WTRG compare with similar companies?
The companies in regulated water closest to Essential Utilities in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWK American Water Works Company, Inc. | $146.42 | $142.31 | -2.8% | Fairly valued |
| AWR American States Water Company | $86.87 | $89.58 | +3.1% | Fairly valued |
| CWT California Water Service Group | $49.11 | $48.12 | -2.0% | Fairly valued |
| HTO H2O America | $60.64 | $54.31 | -10.4% | Fairly valued |
| MSEX Middlesex Water Company | $57.64 | $54.08 | -6.2% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for WTRG, the peer-implied price, is $42.83 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Essential Utilities at a glance
Essential Utilities, Inc. is a diversified utility enterprise that, through its various operating units, delivers vital water, wastewater, and natural gas services within the United States.
- Market value
- $12.3B
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Regulated Water
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +2.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- -0.61
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. WTRG was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Essential Utilities on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for WTRG was $42.87. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $43.53, a change of +1.5%. The companies the model compares it with now trade on higher multiples: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Essential Utilities's valuation
Is Essential Utilities stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, WTRG reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $43.53 a share against a last close of $44.04, a gap of -1.2%.
What is WTRG's fair value?
$43.53 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $29.56 to $60.44.
What price range does the model give WTRG?
$35.26 to $52.00 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Essential Utilities report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 24 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has WTRG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was +4.9% around the report of 4 Nov 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for WTRG is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on WTRG
The model holds no idea open on WTRG today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on WTRG with their outcomes. A free account is enough.