NASDAQ: HTO · Regulated Water
H2O America (HTO) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values H2O America (HTO) at $54.98 a share. The stock last closed at $60.13, which puts the model's fair value 8.6% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. H2O America.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
H2O America, operating nationwide via its various subsidiaries, is a key provider of essential water utility and associated services.
Faircurve's model valued H2O America at $54.98 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $58.60, so the fair value moved -6.2%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $46.13 to $67.04, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock, and calibrated weekly against realised prices, 4,327 past valuations refreshed 26 Sep 2026. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade is High.
The overall quality score against comparable companies is 35 out of 100. Comparable companies include California Water Service Group (CWT) and American States Water Company (AWR). The stock moved +0.6% on 27 Jul 2026, -3.2% on 28 Apr 2026, -1.5% on 25 Feb 2026, -2.7% on 27 Oct 2025, -0.2% on 28 Jul 2025, +5.9% on 28 Apr 2025, -3.6% on 26 Feb 2025, and -0.4% on 28 Oct 2024. The median size of these moves, ignoring direction, was 2.1%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give HTO?
The calibrated range for HTO over 63 trading days is $46.13 to $67.04. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $39.93 to $71.47. In 34% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does HTO score on business quality?
H2O America's overall quality score is 35 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 5 | 4.4%ROIC | 6.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 30 | -4.00xFCF / net income | -0.88x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 58 | 7.0%Revenue growth, trailing | 7.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 19 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 37 | 5.69xNet debt / EBITDA | 4.89x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 0.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.4 pts |
How does HTO compare with similar companies?
The companies in regulated water closest to H2O America in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWT California Water Service Group | $45.96 | $45.92 | -0.1% | Fairly valued |
| AWR American States Water Company | $82.82 | $83.77 | +1.1% | Fairly valued |
| MSEX Middlesex Water Company | $53.56 | $49.02 | -8.5% | Fairly valued |
| WTRG Essential Utilities, Inc. | $39.38 | $39.44 | +0.2% | Fairly valued |
| AWK American Water Works Company, Inc. | $130.25 | $115.83 | -11.1% | Fairly valued |
When does HTO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
H2O America's next earnings report is scheduled for 26 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 30 Sep 2026 imply a move of about 9.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 50 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How HTO moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 27 Jul 2026 | +0.6% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | -3.2% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | -1.5% |
| 27 Oct 2025 | -2.7% |
| 28 Jul 2025 | -0.2% |
| 28 Apr 2025 | +5.9% |
| 26 Feb 2025 | -3.6% |
| 28 Oct 2024 | -0.4% |
H2O America at a glance
H2O America, operating nationwide via its various subsidiaries, is a key provider of essential water utility and associated services.
- Market value
- $2.6B
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Regulated Water
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $904M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +7.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- -0.40
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices H2O America on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for HTO was $58.60. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $54.98, a change of -6.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about H2O America's valuation
Is H2O America stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, HTO reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $54.98 a share against a last close of $60.13, a gap of -8.6%.
What is HTO's fair value?
$54.98 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $39.93 to $71.47.
What price range does the model give HTO?
$46.13 to $67.04 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does H2O America report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 26 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has HTO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was +5.9% around the report of 28 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for HTO is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.