NASDAQ: MSEX · Regulated Water
Middlesex Water (MSEX) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 28 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Middlesex Water (MSEX) at $49.02 a share. The stock last closed at $53.56, which puts the model's fair value 8.5% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Middlesex Water Company.
Faircurve Insights · 28 Sep 2026
Middlesex Water Company primarily delivers vital water and wastewater utility services, structured around two key business units.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $49.02 a share on 28 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave $50.88, so the fair value moved -3.7%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $41.13 to $59.77, built from the fair value. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model grades the evidence as High.
The overall quality score against comparable companies is 55 out of 100. Its profitability is 55, with ROIC 5.7% against a peer median of 5.5%. Its earnings quality is 53, with FCF / net income 0.31x against a peer median of -1.01x. The model compares it with H2O America, California Water Service Group, American States Water Company, Essential Utilities, Inc., and American Water Works Company, Inc. Around its last 8 earnings reports, the median move, ignoring direction, was 3.3%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 28 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give MSEX?
The calibrated range for MSEX over 63 trading days is $41.13 to $59.77. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $37.90 to $61.21. In 37% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does MSEX score on business quality?
Middlesex Water's overall quality score is 55 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 55 | 5.7%ROIC | 5.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 53 | 0.31xFCF / net income | -1.01x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 47 | 1.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 63 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 50 | 4.45xNet debt / EBITDA | 4.50x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 75 | 1.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.6 pts |
How does MSEX compare with similar companies?
The companies in regulated water closest to Middlesex Water in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HTO H2O America | $60.13 | $54.98 | -8.6% | Fairly valued |
| CWT California Water Service Group | $45.96 | $45.92 | -0.1% | Fairly valued |
| AWR American States Water Company | $82.82 | $83.77 | +1.1% | Fairly valued |
| WTRG Essential Utilities, Inc. | $39.38 | $39.44 | +0.2% | Fairly valued |
| AWK American Water Works Company, Inc. | $130.25 | $115.83 | -11.1% | Fairly valued |
When does MSEX report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Middlesex Water's next earnings report is scheduled for 30 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How MSEX moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.3%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | +0.1% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | -2.0% |
| 19 Feb 2026 | +0.1% |
| 31 Oct 2025 | -12.3% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | +0.8% |
| 1 May 2025 | -9.8% |
| 28 Feb 2025 | +13.7% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | +4.5% |
Middlesex Water at a glance
Middlesex Water Company primarily delivers vital water and wastewater utility services, structured around two key business units.
- Market value
- $1.0B
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Regulated Water
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $226M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +10.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 1
- Beta to the US market
- -0.38
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Middlesex Water on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for MSEX was $50.88. As of 28 Sep 2026 it is $49.02, a change of -3.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Middlesex Water's valuation
Is Middlesex Water stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MSEX reads as Fairly valued as of 28 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $49.02 a share against a last close of $53.56, a gap of -8.5%.
What is MSEX's fair value?
$49.02 a share as of 28 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $37.90 to $61.21.
What price range does the model give MSEX?
$41.13 to $59.77 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Middlesex Water report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 30 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MSEX moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was +13.7% around the report of 28 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MSEX is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.