NYSE: AX · Regional Banks
Axos Financial (AX) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Axos Financial (AX) at $117.54 a share. The stock last closed at $88.93, which puts the model's fair value 32.2% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Axos Financial, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Axos Financial, Inc. is a U.S.-based financial institution founded in Las Vegas, Nevada, in 1999, providing banking services to consumers and businesses.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 gave a fair value of $117.54 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $118.61, meaning the fair value moved -0.9%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $98.61 to $143.32, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, which held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is High.
Axos Financial, Inc. is compared with First Financial Bankshares, Inc., Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation, Ameris Bancorp, Associated Banc-Corp, ServisFirst Bancshares, Inc., and Fulton Financial Corporation. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports ranged from +21.5% to -7.9%, with a median size, ignoring direction, of 3.8%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give AX?
The calibrated range for AX over 63 trading days is $98.61 to $143.32. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 30%+ above price, the calibrated range has held the price 29% of the time over 63 trading days, and 71% ended below it; the typical move was +5.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $93.16 to $145.75. In 85% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does AX compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to Axos Financial in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OZK Bank OZK | $46.71 | $75.52 | +61.7% | Gap wider than 60% |
| FLG Flagstar Financial, Inc. | $11.70 | $5.92 | -49.4% | Low evidence grade |
| FFIN First Financial Bankshares, Inc. | $32.15 | $22.66 | -29.5% | Overvalued |
| AUB Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation | $38.82 | $33.98 | -12.5% | Fairly valued |
| ABCB Ameris Bancorp | $81.44 | $64.32 | -21.0% | Overvalued |
| ASB Associated Banc-Corp | $29.00 | $29.45 | +1.6% | Fairly valued |
| SFBS ServisFirst Bancshares, Inc. | $40.15 | $37.75 | -6.0% | Fairly valued |
| FULT Fulton Financial Corporation | $22.81 | $22.32 | -2.1% | Fairly valued |
When does AX report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Axos Financial's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How AX moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | +3.3% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | -7.9% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | +7.8% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | -1.0% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | +0.9% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | +21.5% |
| 28 Jan 2025 | -4.4% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | +2.1% |
Axos Financial at a glance
Founded in Las Vegas, Nevada, in 1999, Axos Financial, Inc. is a U.S.-based financial institution that delivers a comprehensive array of banking services to both individual consumers and businesses.
- Market value
- $5.0B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -26.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 0.91
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Axos Financial on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for AX was $118.61. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $117.54, a change of -0.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Axos Financial's valuation
Is Axos Financial stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, AX reads as Undervalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $117.54 a share against a last close of $88.93, a gap of +32.2%.
What is AX's fair value?
$117.54 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $93.16 to $145.75.
What price range does the model give AX?
$98.61 to $143.32 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Axos Financial report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AX moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was +21.5% around the report of 30 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AX is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.