NYSE: AUB · Regional Banks
Atlantic Union Bankshares (AUB) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Atlantic Union Bankshares (AUB) at $33.98 a share. The stock last closed at $38.82, which puts the model's fair value 12.5% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation is the parent entity for Atlantic Union Bank, and it delivers banking and financial solutions to individual consumers and corporate clients.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $33.98 a share, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -6.4% since the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $36.31. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $28.51 to $41.43, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is High.
The model compares the company with Ameris Bancorp (ABCB), Associated Banc-Corp (ASB), Glacier Bancorp, Inc. (GBCI), Home Bancshares, Inc. (HOMB), Hancock Whitney Corporation (HWC), and Axos Financial, Inc. (AX). The stock has moved around its earnings reports, with moves from the close before each report to the close after it ranging from +18.3% on 24 Apr 2025 to -6.1% on 21 Oct 2024. The median size of these moves, ignoring direction, is 3.1%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give AUB?
The calibrated range for AUB over 63 trading days is $28.51 to $41.43. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $26.37 to $42.96. In 32% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does AUB compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to Atlantic Union Bankshares in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABCB Ameris Bancorp | $81.44 | $64.32 | -21.0% | Overvalued |
| ASB Associated Banc-Corp | $29.00 | $29.45 | +1.6% | Fairly valued |
| GBCI Glacier Bancorp, Inc. | $43.91 | $27.82 | -36.6% | Overvalued |
| FLG Flagstar Financial, Inc. | $11.70 | $5.92 | -49.4% | Low evidence grade |
| HOMB Home Bancshares, Inc. | $28.67 | $23.72 | -17.3% | Overvalued |
| OZK Bank OZK | $46.71 | $75.52 | +61.7% | Gap wider than 60% |
| HWC Hancock Whitney Corporation | $73.09 | $64.19 | -12.2% | Fairly valued |
| AX Axos Financial, Inc. | $88.93 | $117.54 | +32.2% | Undervalued |
When does AUB report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Atlantic Union Bankshares's next earnings report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How AUB moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 21 Jul 2026 | +0.7% |
| 21 Apr 2026 | -3.9% |
| 22 Jan 2026 | -2.8% |
| 23 Oct 2025 | +0.2% |
| 24 Jul 2025 | -1.8% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | +18.3% |
| 23 Jan 2025 | -3.5% |
| 21 Oct 2024 | -6.1% |
Atlantic Union Bankshares at a glance
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB) serves as the parent entity for Atlantic Union Bank, through which it delivers a comprehensive suite of banking and financial solutions to both individual consumers and corporate clients.
- Market value
- $5.5B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -23.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 0.85
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Atlantic Union Bankshares on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for AUB was $36.31. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $33.98, a change of -6.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Atlantic Union Bankshares's valuation
Is Atlantic Union Bankshares stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, AUB reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $33.98 a share against a last close of $38.82, a gap of -12.5%.
What is AUB's fair value?
$33.98 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $26.37 to $42.96.
What price range does the model give AUB?
$28.51 to $41.43 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Atlantic Union Bankshares report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AUB moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was +18.3% around the report of 24 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AUB is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.