NYSE: FLG · Regional Banks
Flagstar Financial (FLG) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Flagstar Financial (FLG) at $5.92 a share. The stock last closed at $11.70, which puts the model's fair value 49.4% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Flagstar Financial, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Flagstar Financial, Inc. serves as the holding company for Flagstar Bank, N.A., delivering banking solutions and services throughout the United States. It operates in Financial Services, specifically Regional Banks.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $5.92 a share, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave the same fair value. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $4.97 to $7.22, built from the fair value, and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
Faircurve's model compares Flagstar Financial, Inc. with Axos Financial, Inc. (AX), Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB), Ameris Bancorp (ABCB), Associated Banc-Corp (ASB), First Financial Bankshares, Inc. (FFIN), Glacier Bancorp, Inc. (GBCI), and Home Bancshares, Inc. (HOMB). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports show a median size of 4.2%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give FLG?
The calibrated range for FLG over 63 trading days is $4.97 to $7.22. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 40% of the time over 63 trading days, and 58% ended above it; the typical move was −0.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $4.59 to $7.48. In 1% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does FLG compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to Flagstar Financial in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OZK Bank OZK | $46.71 | $75.52 | +61.7% | Gap wider than 60% |
| AX Axos Financial, Inc. | $88.93 | $117.54 | +32.2% | Undervalued |
| AUB Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation | $38.82 | $33.98 | -12.5% | Fairly valued |
| ABCB Ameris Bancorp | $81.44 | $64.32 | -21.0% | Overvalued |
| ASB Associated Banc-Corp | $29.00 | $29.45 | +1.6% | Fairly valued |
| FFIN First Financial Bankshares, Inc. | $32.15 | $22.66 | -29.5% | Overvalued |
| GBCI Glacier Bancorp, Inc. | $43.91 | $27.82 | -36.6% | Overvalued |
| HOMB Home Bancshares, Inc. | $28.67 | $23.72 | -17.3% | Overvalued |
When does FLG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Flagstar Financial's next earnings report is scheduled for 23 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How FLG moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | -6.5% |
| 24 Apr 2026 | -2.4% |
| 30 Jan 2026 | -0.3% |
| 24 Oct 2025 | +2.8% |
| 25 Jul 2025 | -5.7% |
| 25 Apr 2025 | +1.3% |
| 30 Jan 2025 | +23.2% |
| 25 Oct 2024 | -7.7% |
Flagstar Financial at a glance
Flagstar Financial, Inc. serves as the holding company for Flagstar Bank, N.A., delivering a wide array of banking solutions and services throughout the United States.
- Market value
- $5.2B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -53.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 13
- Beta to the US market
- 0.79
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Flagstar Financial on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for FLG was $5.92. It is unchanged at $5.92 as of 26 Sep 2026. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Flagstar Financial's valuation
Is Flagstar Financial stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts FLG's fair value at $5.92 a share against a last close of $11.70, as of 26 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is FLG's fair value?
$5.92 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $4.59 to $7.48.
What price range does the model give FLG?
$4.97 to $7.22 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Flagstar Financial report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 23 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has FLG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +23.2% around the report of 30 Jan 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for FLG is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.