NYSE: AXP · Credit Services
American Express (AXP) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values American Express (AXP) at $379.48 a share. The stock last closed at $302.78, which puts the model's fair value 25.3% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. American Express Company.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
American Express Company and its affiliated entities operate globally, delivering charge and credit payment card solutions and various travel-related offerings.
Faircurve's model valued American Express Company on 26 Sep 2026 at $379.48 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $381.27, a move of -0.5%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $280.81 to $345.39, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The company's overall quality score is 68 out of 100 against comparable companies, with profitability at 80 and earnings quality at 81. Growth quality is 39, capital discipline is 77, balance sheet is 48, and stability is 75. Faircurve's model compares American Express Company with Capital One Financial Corporation and PayPal Holdings, Inc. The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports ranged from +8.2% to -5.7%, with a median size of 4.0%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give AXP?
The calibrated range for AXP over 63 trading days is $280.81 to $345.39. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that AXP's own options imply (29% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $297.65 to $477.65. In 76% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does AXP score on business quality?
American Express's overall quality score is 68 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 80 | 36.8%ROIC | 51.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 81 | 1.32xFCF / net income | 1.13x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 39 | 8.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 12.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 77 | 3.6%Net buybacks / market value | 2.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 48 | 0.56xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.41x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 75 | 1.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.0 pts |
How does AXP compare with similar companies?
The companies in credit services closest to American Express in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COF Capital One Financial Corporation | $194.72 | $189.02 | -2.9% | Fairly valued |
| MA Mastercard Incorporated | $552.26 | $525.90 | -4.8% | Low evidence grade |
| V Visa Inc. | $360.66 | $351.11 | -2.6% | Low evidence grade |
| PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. | $52.80 | $60.38 | +14.4% | Fairly valued |
| SYF Synchrony Financial | $71.77 | $127.89 | +78.2% | Gap wider than 60% |
| GPN Global Payments Inc. | $78.38 | $69.38 | -11.5% | Low evidence grade |
| ALLY Ally Financial Inc. | $37.91 | $51.14 | +34.9% | Low evidence grade |
| FCFS FirstCash Holdings, Inc | $210.36 | $201.75 | -4.1% | Low evidence grade |
When does AXP report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
American Express's next earnings report is scheduled for 23 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 3.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. AXP's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 8.4% over one month.
How AXP moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | -1.6% |
| 23 Apr 2026 | -5.7% |
| 30 Jan 2026 | -1.6% |
| 17 Oct 2025 | +8.2% |
| 18 Jul 2025 | -3.9% |
| 17 Apr 2025 | -4.1% |
| 24 Jan 2025 | -2.9% |
| 18 Oct 2024 | -5.3% |
American Express at a glance
Operating globally, American Express Company and its affiliated entities deliver a comprehensive suite of charge and credit payment card solutions, alongside a variety of travel-related offerings.
- Market value
- $208.6B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Credit Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $84.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -1.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 21
- Beta to the US market
- 0.97
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices American Express on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for AXP was $381.27. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $379.48, a change of -0.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about American Express's valuation
Is American Express stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts AXP's fair value at $379.48 a share against a last close of $302.78, as of 26 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is AXP's fair value?
$379.48 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $297.65 to $477.65.
What price range does the model give AXP?
$280.81 to $345.39 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does American Express report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 23 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AXP moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +8.2% around the report of 17 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AXP is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.