NYSE: MA · Credit Services
Mastercard (MA) fair value and price range
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Mastercard (MA) at $527.94 a share. The stock last closed at $552.26, which puts the model's fair value 4.4% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Mastercard Incorporated.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Mastercard Incorporated is a global technology firm specializing in providing transaction processing and a wide array of payment solutions, operating across the United States and internationally.
Faircurve's model on 3 Oct 2026 found a fair value of $527.94 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The fair value moved -2.6% since the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $541.81. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $518.41 to $613.26, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The overall quality score is 82 out of 100, against comparable companies. The model compares it with PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL). The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports ranged from +3.3% to -5.7%, with a median size of 1.5%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give MA?
The calibrated range for MA over 63 trading days is $518.41 to $613.26. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that MA's own options imply (24% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $398.97 to $697.55. In 45% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does MA score on business quality?
Mastercard's overall quality score is 82 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 89.2%ROIC | 46.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 60 | 1.01xFCF / net income | 1.48x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 77 | 16.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 11.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 74 | 1.6%Net buybacks / market value | 2.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 76 | 0.60xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.65x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 97 | 0.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.0 pts |
How does MA compare with similar companies?
The companies in credit services closest to Mastercard in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| V Visa Inc. | $360.66 | $344.02 | -4.6% | Low evidence grade |
| AXP American Express Company | $302.78 | $367.88 | +21.5% | Low evidence grade |
| COF Capital One Financial Corporation | $194.72 | $182.94 | -6.0% | Low evidence grade |
| PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. | $52.80 | $58.83 | +11.4% | Fairly valued |
| SYF Synchrony Financial | $71.77 | $126.25 | +75.9% | Gap wider than 60% |
| GPN Global Payments Inc. | $78.38 | $65.82 | -16.0% | Low evidence grade |
| ALLY Ally Financial Inc. | $37.91 | $50.02 | +31.9% | Low evidence grade |
| FCFS FirstCash Holdings, Inc | $210.36 | $195.68 | -7.0% | Low evidence grade |
When does MA report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Mastercard's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 3.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. MA's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 6.9% over one month.
How MA moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | +1.7% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | -5.7% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | +3.3% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | -0.5% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | +0.1% |
| 1 May 2025 | +2.1% |
| 30 Jan 2025 | +1.2% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | -1.1% |
Mastercard at a glance
Mastercard Incorporated is a global technology firm specializing in providing transaction processing and a wide array of payment solutions, operating across the United States and internationally.
- Market value
- $484.4B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Credit Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $40.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +13.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 24
- Beta to the US market
- 0.31
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Mastercard on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for MA was $541.81. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $527.94, a change of -2.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Mastercard's valuation
Is Mastercard stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts MA's fair value at $527.94 a share against a last close of $552.26, as of 3 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is MA's fair value?
$527.94 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $398.97 to $697.55.
What price range does the model give MA?
$518.41 to $613.26 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Mastercard report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MA moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was -5.7% around the report of 30 Apr 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MA is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.