NYSE: COF · Credit Services
Capital One Financial (COF) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Capital One Financial (COF) at $189.02 a share. The stock last closed at $194.72, which puts the model's fair value 2.9% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Capital One Financial Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Capital One Financial Corporation, identified by its ticker COF, operates as a prominent financial services holding company.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $189.02 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -3.4% since the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $195.67. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $177.34 to $229.30, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices (3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is High.
The model compares Capital One Financial Corporation with PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL). The stock has moved around its last 8 earnings reports, with a median size of 3.8% ignoring direction. The moves were -2.6% on 21 Jul 2026, -3.1% on 21 Apr 2026, -5.9% on 22 Jan 2026, +2.6% on 21 Oct 2025, +1.7% on 22 Jul 2025, +6.8% on 22 Apr 2025, +5.2% on 21 Jan 2025, and +4.6% on 24 Oct 2024.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give COF?
The calibrated range for COF over 63 trading days is $177.34 to $229.30. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that COF's own options imply (36% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $146.70 to $239.00. In 43% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does COF compare with similar companies?
The companies in credit services closest to Capital One Financial in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXP American Express Company | $302.78 | $379.48 | +25.3% | Low evidence grade |
| PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. | $52.80 | $60.38 | +14.4% | Fairly valued |
| MA Mastercard Incorporated | $552.26 | $525.90 | -4.8% | Low evidence grade |
| SYF Synchrony Financial | $71.77 | $127.89 | +78.2% | Gap wider than 60% |
| V Visa Inc. | $360.66 | $351.11 | -2.6% | Low evidence grade |
| GPN Global Payments Inc. | $78.38 | $69.38 | -11.5% | Low evidence grade |
| ALLY Ally Financial Inc. | $37.91 | $51.14 | +34.9% | Low evidence grade |
| FCFS FirstCash Holdings, Inc | $210.36 | $201.75 | -4.1% | Low evidence grade |
When does COF report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Capital One Financial's next earnings report is scheduled for 20 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. COF's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 10.5% over one month.
How COF moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 21 Jul 2026 | -2.6% |
| 21 Apr 2026 | -3.1% |
| 22 Jan 2026 | -5.9% |
| 21 Oct 2025 | +2.6% |
| 22 Jul 2025 | +1.7% |
| 22 Apr 2025 | +6.8% |
| 21 Jan 2025 | +5.2% |
| 24 Oct 2024 | +4.6% |
Capital One Financial at a glance
Capital One Financial Corporation, identified by its ticker COF, operates as a prominent financial services holding company.
- Market value
- $122.8B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Credit Services
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -7.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 14
- Beta to the US market
- 1.55
- First valued by Faircurve
- 4 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Capital One Financial on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for COF was $195.67. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $189.02, a change of -3.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Capital One Financial's valuation
Is Capital One Financial stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, COF reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $189.02 a share against a last close of $194.72, a gap of -2.9%.
What is COF's fair value?
$189.02 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $146.70 to $239.00.
What price range does the model give COF?
$177.34 to $229.30 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Capital One Financial report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 20 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has COF moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was +6.8% around the report of 22 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for COF is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.