NASDAQ: BANF · Regional Banks
BancFirst (BANF) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 10 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values BancFirst (BANF) at $94.34 a share. The stock last closed at $106.18, which puts the model's fair value 11.2% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 9 Oct 2026. BancFirst Corporation.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 10 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $92.13 to $94.34 (+2.4%). The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method.
What the model makes of itThe price of $106.18 is 11.2% above it: Fairly valued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 16 Oct 2026. Options expiring after the report price a move of about 8% either way. The next weekly run is on Saturday 17 Oct 2026.
Faircurve Insights · 10 Oct 2026
BancFirst Corporation is the parent bank holding company for BancFirst, providing commercial banking services to retail customers and small to mid-sized businesses.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $94.34 a share for BancFirst Corporation on 10 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +2.4% since the previous run on 3 Oct 2026, which gave $92.13, and the model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $97.65 to $119.71, built around the price from the stock's own options, calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High.
Faircurve's model compares BancFirst Corporation with Renasant Corporation (RNST), First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. (FIBK), First Financial Bancorp. (FFBC), WSFS Financial Corporation (WSFS), Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. (TCBI), Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC), and Cathay General Bancorp (CATY). Independent Bank Corp. (INDB) is a comparable company with no verdict on this date.
The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports, measured from the close before each report to the close after it, were: 23 Jul 2026 +1.1%, 16 Apr 2026 +3.3%, 23 Jan 2026 -7.5%, 17 Oct 2025 +0.1%, 17 Jul 2025 +5.9%, 17 Apr 2025 +13.9%, 23 Jan 2025 -1.7%, and 17 Oct 2024 +1.8%. The median size of these moves, ignoring direction, was 2.6%. At a glance, consensus revenue growth next fiscal year is -9.2%, there are 2 analysts with estimates, and the beta to the US market is 0.56. Faircurve first valued the company on 11 Jul 2026.
Written from the figures on this page for the 10 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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What price range does the model give BANF?
The calibrated range for BANF over 63 trading days is $97.65 to $119.71. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that BANF's own options imply (29% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $73.22 to $119.29. In 34% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does BANF compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to BancFirst in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RNST Renasant Corporation | $39.01 | $31.81 | -18.5% | Overvalued |
| INDB Independent Bank Corp. | $77.02 | $63.51 | -17.5% | Low evidence grade |
| FIBK First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. | $34.52 | $32.57 | -5.6% | Fairly valued |
| FFBC First Financial Bancorp. | $30.90 | $28.56 | -7.6% | Fairly valued |
| WSFS WSFS Financial Corporation | $75.39 | $62.82 | -16.7% | Overvalued |
| TCBI Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. | $90.34 | $86.55 | -4.2% | Fairly valued |
| SFNC Simmons First National Corporation | $22.18 | $19.18 | -13.5% | Overvalued |
| CATY Cathay General Bancorp | $59.12 | $63.92 | +8.1% | Fairly valued |
When does BANF report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
BancFirst's next earnings report is scheduled for 16 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 9 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 41 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. BANF's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 8.4% over one month.
How BANF moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2026 | +1.1% |
| 16 Apr 2026 | +3.3% |
| 23 Jan 2026 | -7.5% |
| 17 Oct 2025 | +0.1% |
| 17 Jul 2025 | +5.9% |
| 17 Apr 2025 | +13.9% |
| 23 Jan 2025 | -1.7% |
| 17 Oct 2024 | +1.8% |
BancFirst at a glance
BancFirst Corporation functions as the parent bank holding company for BancFirst, delivering a wide spectrum of commercial banking services to both retail customers and small to mid-sized businesses.
- Market value
- $3.6B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -9.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- 0.56
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 9 Oct 2026, 53.7% of the 1,102 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. BANF was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices BancFirst on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 3 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for BANF was $92.13. As of 10 Oct 2026 it is $94.34, a change of +2.4%. The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about BancFirst's valuation
Is BancFirst stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, BANF reads as Fairly valued as of 10 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $94.34 a share against a last close of $106.18, a gap of -11.2%.
What is BANF's fair value?
$94.34 a share as of 10 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $73.22 to $119.29.
What price range does the model give BANF?
$97.65 to $119.71 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026.
When does BancFirst report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 16 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has BANF moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +13.9% around the report of 17 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for BANF is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.