NASDAQ: BHF ยท Life Insurance
Brighthouse Financial (BHF) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Brighthouse Financial (BHF) at $190.59 a share. The stock last closed at $42.60, which puts the model's fair value 347.4% above the price. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
- The fair value sits implausibly far from the market price, which usually points to a data problem.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Brighthouse Financial, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $190.59, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $42.60 is 347.4% below it. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
What's nextReports on 5 Nov 2026. Options expiring after the report price a move of about 15% either way. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give BHF?
The calibrated range for BHF over 63 trading days is $32.77 to $58.79. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that BHF's own options imply (88% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $147.92 to $240.98. In 100% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
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When does BHF report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Brighthouse Financial's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 14.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 15 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. BHF's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 25.5% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across BHF's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.7%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in BHF
How does BHF compare with similar companies?
The companies in life insurance closest to Brighthouse Financial in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNO CNO Financial Group, Inc. | $57.39 | $50.35 | -12.3% | Low evidence grade |
| LNC Lincoln National Corporation | $42.23 | $117.88 | +179.1% | Gap wider than 60% |
| PRI Primerica, Inc. | $280.23 | $276.88 | -1.2% | Low evidence grade |
| VOYA Voya Financial, Inc. | $103.11 | $97.54 | -5.4% | Low evidence grade |
| JXN Jackson Financial Inc. | $140.65 | $209.80 | +49.2% | Low evidence grade |
| UNM Unum Group | $91.03 | $86.57 | -4.9% | Low evidence grade |
| PRU Prudential Financial, Inc. | $118.81 | $143.66 | +20.9% | Undervalued |
| AFL Aflac Incorporated | $124.04 | $101.81 | -17.9% | Low evidence grade |
Brighthouse Financial at a glance
Brighthouse Financial, Inc. is a financial services firm specializing in annuity and life insurance offerings across the United States. Its operations are organized into three distinct business units: Annuities, Life, and Run-off.
- Market value
- $2.5B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Life Insurance
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +37.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- -0.10
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Brighthouse Financial on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for BHF was $189.53. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $190.59, a change of +0.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Brighthouse Financial's valuation
Is Brighthouse Financial stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts BHF's fair value at $190.59 a share against a last close of $42.60, as of 31 Oct 2026. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
What is BHF's fair value?
$190.59 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $147.92 to $240.98.
What price range does the model give BHF?
$32.77 to $58.79 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Brighthouse Financial report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has BHF moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +27.4% around the report of 6 Nov 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for BHF is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.