NYSE: BJ · Discount Stores
BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) at $110.45 a share. The stock last closed at $111.26, which puts the model's fair value 0.7% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $108.30 to $110.45 (+2.0%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: part of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $111.26 is 0.7% above it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 20 Nov 2026. Options expiring after the report price a move of about 24% either way. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give BJ?
The calibrated range for BJ over 63 trading days is $82.58 to $160.48. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that BJ's own options imply (100% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $90.09 to $132.76. In 54% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. operates a network of membership-based retail warehouses, mainly across the eastern United States. The business runs through the company and its subsidiaries.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $110.45 a share on 31 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $108.30, so the fair value moved +2.0%. In the model's words, the stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $99.54 to $126.65, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, based on 6,661 past valuations. The evidence grade is Medium. The grade reflects input completeness, comparable agreement and the width of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
BJ scores 57 out of 100 on the model's overall quality measure, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Stability is the strongest, at 100, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 0.1 pts against a peer median of 0.7 pts. Earnings quality is the weakest, at 13, with FCF to net income of 0.61x against a peer median of 1.05x. Profitability scores 72, with ROIC of 13.1% against a peer median of 12.4%. The model compares BJ with Dollar Tree, Dollar General, Ollie's, PriceSmart, Target, Costco and Walmart.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does BJ report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
BJ's Wholesale Club's next earnings report is scheduled for 20 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 24.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. BJ's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 29.0% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across BJ's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 9.0%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in BJ
How does BJ score on business quality?
BJ's Wholesale Club's overall quality score is 57 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 72 | 13.1%ROIC | 12.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 13 | 0.61xFCF / net income | 1.05x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 53 | 4.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 58 | 4.1%Net buybacks / market value | 0.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 63 | 2.34xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.23x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 0.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.7 pts |
How does BJ compare with similar companies?
The companies in discount stores closest to BJ's Wholesale Club in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc. | $137.94 | $199.72 | +44.8% | Undervalued |
| DG Dollar General Corporation | $138.00 | $129.20 | -6.4% | Fairly valued |
| OLLI Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. | $93.00 | $89.11 | -4.2% | Fairly valued |
| PSMT PriceSmart, Inc. | $162.56 | $164.78 | +1.4% | Fairly valued |
| TGT Target Corporation | $157.95 | $184.76 | +17.0% | Undervalued |
| COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | $1,065.59 | $833.24 | -21.8% | Overvalued |
| WMT Walmart Inc. | $127.72 | $103.20 | -19.2% | Overvalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for BJ, the peer-implied price, is $116.04 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
BJ's Wholesale Club at a glance
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc., alongside its subsidiaries, manages a network of membership-based retail warehouses primarily located across the eastern United States.
- Market value
- $13.6B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Discount Stores
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $25.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +11.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 16
- Beta to the US market
- -0.49
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. BJ was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices BJ's Wholesale Club on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for BJ was $108.30. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $110.45, a change of +2.0%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: part of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about BJ's Wholesale Club's valuation
Is BJ's Wholesale Club stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, BJ reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $110.45 a share against a last close of $111.26, a gap of -0.7%.
What is BJ's fair value?
$110.45 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $90.09 to $132.76.
What price range does the model give BJ?
$82.58 to $160.48 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does BJ's Wholesale Club report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 20 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has BJ moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 9.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +15.4% around the report of 6 Mar 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for BJ is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on BJ
The model holds no idea open on BJ today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on BJ with their outcomes. A free account is enough.