NASDAQ: OLLI ยท Discount Stores
Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 20 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) at $76.78 a share. The stock last closed at $75.84, which puts the model's fair value 1.2% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 18 Sep 2026. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.
What price range does the model give OLLI?
The calibrated range for OLLI over 63 trading days is $67.73 to $93.88. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that OLLI's own options imply (46% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 2,982 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $54.05 to $106.32. In 52% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does OLLI score on business quality?
Ollie's Bargain Outlet's overall quality score is 57 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 57 | 11.0%ROIC | 9.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 43 | 0.82xFCF / net income | 1.29x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 67 | 16.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 10.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 62 | 4.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 63 | 1.43xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.80x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 54 | 1.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.0 pts |
How does OLLI compare with similar companies?
The companies in discount stores closest to Ollie's Bargain Outlet in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSMT PriceSmart, Inc. | $168.66 | $162.06 | -3.9% | Fairly valued |
| BJ BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. | $92.03 | $96.96 | +5.4% | Fairly valued |
| DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc. | $111.96 | $158.29 | +41.4% | Undervalued |
| DG Dollar General Corporation | $122.41 | $111.04 | -9.3% | Fairly valued |
| TGT Target Corporation | $158.19 | $181.43 | +14.7% | Fairly valued |
| COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | $895.31 | $743.86 | -16.9% | Overvalued |
| WMT Walmart Inc. | $106.73 | $90.72 | -15.0% | Overvalued |
When does OLLI report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Ollie's Bargain Outlet's next earnings report is scheduled for 8 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 18 Sep 2026 imply a move of about 10.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 27 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. OLLI's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 13.4% over one month.
How OLLI moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 2 Sep 2026 | +1.9% |
| 3 Jun 2026 | -6.0% |
| 12 Mar 2026 | +5.7% |
| 9 Dec 2025 | -5.3% |
| 28 Aug 2025 | -2.9% |
| 3 Jun 2025 | +10.7% |
| 19 Mar 2025 | +6.2% |
| 10 Dec 2024 | +15.8% |
Ollie's Bargain Outlet at a glance
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates as a leading discount retailer, offering a wide variety of brand-name goods.
- Market value
- $4.6B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Discount Stores
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +10.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- 0.73
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Ollie's Bargain Outlet on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 12 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for OLLI was $74.64. As of 20 Sep 2026 it is $76.78, a change of +2.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Ollie's Bargain Outlet's valuation
Is Ollie's Bargain Outlet stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, OLLI reads as Fairly valued as of 20 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $76.78 a share against a last close of $75.84, a gap of +1.2%.
What is OLLI's fair value?
$76.78 a share as of 20 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $54.05 to $106.32.
What price range does the model give OLLI?
$67.73 to $93.88 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 2,982 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026.
When does Ollie's Bargain Outlet report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 8 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has OLLI moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was +15.8% around the report of 10 Dec 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
Model confidence for OLLI is medium. Confidence reflects how complete the inputs are and how well comparable companies explain the valuation. It is not a probability that the price reaches the fair value.