NASDAQ: OLLI · Discount Stores
Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) at $89.11 a share. The stock last closed at $93.00, which puts the model's fair value 4.2% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $86.68 to $89.11 (+2.8%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $93.00 is 4.2% above it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 8 Dec 2026. Options prices imply a move of about 16% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give OLLI?
The calibrated range for OLLI over 63 trading days is $78.98 to $113.68. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that OLLI's own options imply (55% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $63.10 to $122.90. In 49% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) operates as a leading discount retailer. It offers a wide variety of brand-name goods.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $89.11 a share on 31 Oct 2026. This is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $86.68, so the fair value moved +2.8%. The model says the stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $79.35 to $116.06. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, and calibrated weekly against realised prices from 6,661 past valuations. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence Medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model gives Ollie's an overall quality score of 58 out of 100 against comparable companies. Growth quality stands out at 75, with trailing revenue growth of 16.6% against a peer median of 4.9%. Balance sheet scores 76, with net debt to EBITDA of 1.43x against a peer median of 2.50x. Capital discipline scores 67, with net buybacks at 3.4% of market value against a peer median of 1.3%. The model compares Ollie's with PriceSmart, BJ's Wholesale Club, Dollar Tree, Dollar General, Target, Costco and Walmart.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does OLLI report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Ollie's Bargain Outlet's next earnings report is scheduled for 8 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 8.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. OLLI's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 15.9% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across OLLI's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.5%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in OLLI
How does OLLI score on business quality?
Ollie's Bargain Outlet's overall quality score is 58 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 45 | 11.0%ROIC | 12.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 50 | 0.82xFCF / net income | 0.93x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 75 | 16.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 4.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 67 | 3.4%Net buybacks / market value | 1.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 76 | 1.43xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.50x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 54 | 1.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.1 pts |
How does OLLI compare with similar companies?
The companies in discount stores closest to Ollie's Bargain Outlet in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSMT PriceSmart, Inc. | $162.56 | $164.78 | +1.4% | Fairly valued |
| BJ BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. | $111.26 | $110.45 | -0.7% | Fairly valued |
| DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc. | $137.94 | $199.72 | +44.8% | Undervalued |
| DG Dollar General Corporation | $138.00 | $129.20 | -6.4% | Fairly valued |
| TGT Target Corporation | $157.95 | $184.76 | +17.0% | Undervalued |
| COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | $1,065.59 | $833.24 | -21.8% | Overvalued |
| WMT Walmart Inc. | $127.72 | $103.20 | -19.2% | Overvalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for OLLI, the peer-implied price, is $80.91 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet at a glance
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates as a leading discount retailer, offering a wide variety of brand-name goods.
- Market value
- $5.4B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Discount Stores
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +10.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- 0.66
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. OLLI was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Ollie's Bargain Outlet on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for OLLI was $86.68. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $89.11, a change of +2.8%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Ollie's Bargain Outlet's valuation
Is Ollie's Bargain Outlet stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, OLLI reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $89.11 a share against a last close of $93.00, a gap of -4.2%.
What is OLLI's fair value?
$89.11 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $63.10 to $122.90.
What price range does the model give OLLI?
$78.98 to $113.68 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Ollie's Bargain Outlet report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 8 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has OLLI moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +15.8% around the report of 10 Dec 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for OLLI is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on OLLI
The model holds no idea open on OLLI today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on OLLI with their outcomes. A free account is enough.